The International Coffee Organisation has bumped up its 2020/21 global coffee surplus forecast in its June monthly report but said production will likely fall below world demand next season.
The ICO raised its 2020/21 surplus estimate to 2.30 million bags in June from 2.01 million bags in May, mainly due to a reduced consumption projection.
Consumption is now seen at 167.20 million bags this season from a previous 167.58 million bags and below the 168.5 million seen before the Covid pandemic.
The ICO expects production from many countries, not least Brazil, to fall next season and sees consumption continuing to grow as pandemic restrictions are eased and economies bounce back.
It did not give a figure for its projected deficit next season.
Global coffee exports totalled 9.8 million 60-kg bags in May 2021, down 10.1% year on year, the ICO said.
But it added that exports for the first eight months of the season rose to 87.3 million bags from 85.4 million a year ago.