The latest Dublin Economic Monitor shows that while the Dublin economy continues to be impacted by Covid-19, there have been positive developments since the first national lockdown.
Dublin's IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index recorded a recovery in business activity in the third quarter of the year, led by expansions in activity in the manufacturing and construction sectors.
The PMI recovered to 51.2 in the quarter, up from 25.2 in the second quarter of 2020. A figure over 50 signals growth, while a figure under 50 signals contraction.
On a positive note, retail spending in the Dublin economy rebounded strongly in the three months from July to September, but the recovery was uneven.
Overall sales increased by almost 22% on a quarterly basis as the easing of Covid-19 restrictions drove improved trading for bricks-and-mortar retailers, while eCommerce expenditure showed a slight 1.2% decline.
Household goods sales soared by 62.4% on a quarterly basis to exceed pre-pandemic levels, in what was likely a reflection of rising consumer confidence coupled with considerable savings built up earlier in the year.
But the labour market suffered further setbacks, with the unemployment rate in Dublin increasing to 8.2%.
The monitor shows that when recipients of PUP payments are included, the number of people in Dublin who were not working totalled almost 170,000.
It said that specific sectors such as retail and hospitality showed initial signs of recovery in the third quarter, but the imposition of Level 5 restrictions will be expected to have reversed any positive trends.
Dublin's hospitality sector was also particularly badly affected by the pandemic and may be one of the last to recover.
New data shows that restaurant reservations plummeted in November in line with increased restrictions, having previously recovered to 2019 levels over the summer period. Similarly, hotel occupancy rates have fallen to below 20% as average daily rates remained at exceptionally low levels.
Meanwhile, commuting patterns in Dublin remained depressed through the second half of 2020.
Public transport trips were down by 58.2% in the third quarter, while traffic volumes on the city's main thoroughfares remained down by almost a third in November.
Andrew Webb, chief economist with Grant Thornton, said the Economic Monitor reflects an eventful quarter which saw strong bounce backs in economic performance quickly run out of steam.
Mr Webb said that was an unfortunate and inevitable consequence of the "stop-go" cycle that dealing with Covid-19 has pushed the country into.
"Hope for 2021 emerged on the news of a potential vaccine, which, if successful, could see a collective sigh of relief and a strong and sustained bounceback in economic performance next year," he added.
