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Deere outlook for 2019 disappoints amid trade war, slowing demand

Equipment sales for the world's largest tractor manufacturer are estimated to grow 7% on the year in 2019 compared with a 29% jump in fiscal 2018
Equipment sales for the world's largest tractor manufacturer are estimated to grow 7% on the year in 2019 compared with a 29% jump in fiscal 2018

Deere & Co gave an underwhelming earnings forecast for fiscal 2019 after missing its quarterly profit estimates.

This comes amid a US trade battle with China that has depressed US farm commodity prices and hurt farm equipment demand. 

The Illinois-based tractor maker expects net income of about $3.6 billion in 2019. 

That would translate into earnings of $11.10 per share, compared with the average analyst estimate of $11.47, according to Refinitiv data. 

Equipment sales for the world's largest tractor manufacturer are estimated to grow 7% on the year in 2019 compared with a 29% jump in fiscal 2018, which ended on October 28. 

Deere reported an adjusted profit in the fourth quarter to October 28 of $2.30 per share, lower than Refinitiv's estimates for $2.45, as equipment sales growth halved from the previous quarter. 

Agriculture and turf equipment sales rose 3% in the quarter, compared with 18% in the third quarter.

The US trade showdown with China, one of the biggest export markets for US agricultural products, is further squeezing American farmers whose incomes have been under a siege for the past four years amid a global grain glut. 

Last year, China imported 32 million tons of soybeans from the US. 

But this year, the country has not purchased any of the US crop after Beijing slapped a 25% tariff on US imports in July. 

The move was in retaliation for US duties on Chinese goods, imposed by US President Donald Trump.

There has been growing concern that depressed bean prices could induce a significant switch of acreage into other crops next year, causing a supply glut that could, in turn, hurt the prices of other farm commodities.

Deere today moderated its previous expectations, projecting farm cash receipts to remain flat. 

It had earlier been hopeful that stronger demand for crops like corn, wheat and cotton would mitigate the impact of the trade battle and boost US farm cash receipts in 2019. 

Deere said industry sales of agricultural equipment in North America - its biggest market - were expected to be flat to up 5% next year, compared with a 10% estimated increase for 2018. 

Its global sales for agriculture and turf equipment are projected to rise 3% in 2019, significantly slower than a 15% year-on-year jump this year.