The bad weather this spring may be behind a weakness in the States' revenue from excise duty.
Exchequer returns published today for the month of April show excise receipts for the year to date are more than 3% - or €56m - below estimates made at the start of the year.
The returns also show a 21.6% shortfall in VAT receipts for April. However, this is not a VAT-due month (the tax is due for payment to Revenue six times during the year), and the €46m shortfall is likely due to the timing of VAT refunds to companies.
Income tax receipts were slightly ahead of target for the month of April.
PAYE and USC returns are significantly up on last year, due to increased employment and higher pay levels.
But the Income tax heading is €72m below target for the first four months of the year, apparently due to weakness in self-employed tax payments.
The Income tax heading is 1.1% below profile for the first four months of the year, but was 2.4% below profile at this time last year, before coming in on target towards the end of the year, when most of the self-employed tax bills are paid.
May is regarded as the key month in the first half of the year, as it is the second biggest month for the payment of corporation tax.
It is also a VAT due month, and will give clearer picture of how accurate revenue forecasts have been.
Some slight overspending by the Department of Social Protection is being attributed to the fact that 1 May is a bank holiday in many EU states, and this may have affected the SEPA payment system, requiring money that would normally be spent in May having to be paid out in April, in order to reach department clients on time.
Overall spending of €15.4 billion for the four months to the end of April was 0.2% or €29m below profile.
Overall, the State has taken in €14.7 billion of tax revenue, against a projection of €14.9 billion - a shortfall of €202m, or 1.4% for the first four months of the year.
In April the shortfall was 2.1%, or €61m, ans was almost entirely due to the shortfall in VAT, and corporation tax, which is volatile and not due in large amounts until May and November.
Revenues in April were 4.3% higher than in April of last year, while total revenues for the first four months of this year are 3.6% - or half a billion euro – higher than at the same point last year.
Overall there was an Exchequer deficit of €3.4 billion for the period to the end of April, €893m higher than at the same point last year.
This is due to an increase in spending that was not fully offset by an increase in tax revenues. Revenues grew by 3.6%, while spending grew by 8.6% in year on year terms.
Commenting on the figures, Tax Partner with Grant Thornton Peter Vale said: "Probably the figure most eagerly awaited in today’s Exchequer figures was that for income tax. We saw a surprising dip in income tax receipts in March, something that was hard to rationalise against the strong labour market, evidenced this week by the lowest unemployment figures since 2008.
"The Department of Finance previously blamed a dip in returns from the self-employed sector as the reason for the weaker than expected income tax figures."
Mr Vale added that "overall a reasonable set of figures for April and tax receipts lagging only slightly behind target and over €500m ahead of the same period last year, which bodes well for some more significant tax cuts in October".
