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Bank of England boosts UK growth forecasts

Bank of England has today upgraded its forecast for UK economic growth for the next three years
Bank of England has today upgraded its forecast for UK economic growth for the next three years

The Bank of England boosted its forecast for UK growth in 2017 as some rate-setters were more nervous about rising inflation.

But overall, the Bank of England seemed in no rush to raise interest rates as the economy adjusts to the prospect of Brexit. 

In a sign of a developing split, the bank said some of its rate-setters had "moved a little closer" to their limits for tolerating an overshoot of its 2% inflation target, caused by sterling's slide since June's Brexit vote. 

But the Bank of England, announcing its latest quarterly thinking on Britain's economy today, sent broader signals that it was comfortable with its record low interest rates. 

It said it now expected inflation would be slightly lower in two years' time than it did in November, a key yard-stick. 

Significantly, the Bank of England also said its rate setters now believed the unemployment rate could fall to 4.5% - lower than its previous estimate of 5% and below the current rate - before it starts to push up inflation.

That could give the bank more margin to keep rates at their record low for longer and may be useful as it announced the second big increase in three months to its forecast for economic growth in 2017.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and his fellow policymakers were wrong-footed by the resilience of Britain's economy last year following the referendum decision in June to take the country out of the European Union. 

The UK's growth in 2016 was stronger than in any other Group of Seven big rich economy, confounding the bank's pre-referendum warnings of a quick Brexit hit to the economy. 

The Bank of England said today it now expected economic growth of 2% this year, higher than economists had predicted and up a lot from its previous forecast of 1.4%. 

The new 2017 outlook towered above the forecast of 0.8% growth made by bank in the weeks after the Brexit vote, when the economy seemed to be heading for a recession and the Bank of England cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25%. 

Since then, British consumers have carried on spending and finance minister Philip Hammond has relaxed the country's austerity drive, something noted by the Bank of England today. 

"The upgraded outlook reflects the fiscal stimulus announced in the chancellor's Autumn Statement, firmer momentum in global activity, higher global equity prices and more supportive credit conditions," the Bank of England stated. 

Growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 were raised by a moderate 0.1 percentage points in each year, and the bank said it still expected rising inflation to cause household living standards to start stagnating at the end of this year. 

The outlook for Britain's economy remains highly uncertain for political reasons too. 

British Prime Minister Theresa May has said she wants to take the country out of the EU's single market when it leaves the bloc and the trade policies of new US President Donald Trump are likely to put strains on the world economy.

The Bank of England said today that its policymakers had voted 9-0 to keep rates on hold at 0.25%, in line with economists' expectations in a Reuters poll. 

The Monetary Policy Committee also decided unanimously to let its latest, £60 billion phase of UK government bond purchases close on schedule later this month. 

It made no change to its smaller corporate bond buying programme. 

Before today's announcement, financial markets had been pricing in a roughly 50-50 chance of a rate hike by the Bank of England this year. 

But most economists said it would probably not happen until mid-2019, when Britain is likely to have left the EU. 

By contrast, the US Federal Reserve suggested yesterday it was ready to raise interest rates for a third time since the financial crisis later this year as it noted improvements in the US economy. 

Until last year's Brexit vote, the Bank of England had been expected to follow the Fed closely with rate increases of its own. 

The Bank reiterated its view today that there were limits to how much it would tolerate inflation shooting temporarily above its 2% target. 

It has said it will keep rates at their record low in order to reduce the risk of choking off the economy's momentum. 

But some MPC members appeared to be getting more anxious about the building inflation pressures. 

"For some members, the risks around the trade-off embodied in the central projection meant they had move a little closer to those limits," the Bank said in a sum-up of the most recent debate amongst its policymakers. 

The Bank of England now expects inflation to peak at 2.75% by the middle of 2018 although many economists say it will exceed 3%.