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Ryanair lifts growth forecast as half yearly profits rise by 7%

Ryanair expects to carry 200 million passengers a year by 2024
Ryanair expects to carry 200 million passengers a year by 2024

Shares in Ryanair closed with strong gains after it raised its long-term growth forecast by 10% as it reported a 7% increase in half yearly after tax profits.

The airline said it expected to carry 200 million passengers a year by 2024 and secure over 20% of Europe's short-haul market as rivals struggle with falling average airfares. 

Already Europe's largest carrier by passenger numbers with a market share of around 15%, Ryanair said it will defer the retirement of around 40 planes to boost its capacity to 585 Boeing 737s by 2024. 

Three weeks ago Ryanair cut its profit forecast for the year to March by 5% due to sterling weakness and the impact of intense competition on fares. 

It said its profit after tax for the six months to the end of September was €1.17 billion, an increase of 7% and in line with analyst forecasts.  

The airline said it plans to take advantage of its low cost base to prioritise market share over profit margins in ticket prices.

This would see it increase capacity by around 13% this winter compared to an industry average of around 9%. 

Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary said the results were a "creditable performance in difficult market conditions due to repeated air traffic control strikes, terror events, and the adverse economic impact of the Brexit vote in June which saw sterling weaken materially over the peak summer period".

"We have EU incumbents retrenching, restructuring...creating more and more opportunities for Ryanair, particularly in primary airports," Mr O'Leary added.

Ryanair said today it was comfortable with its forecast of profit after tax between €1.3-1.35 billion, but said it was heavily dependent upon there being no unexpected adverse declines in airfares in the three months to March. 

In another sign of confidence, Ryanair said it would return an additional €550m to shareholders by February in a share buyback.

But it added that the uncertainty over Brexit, and the final outcome of the UK's departure negotiations with the European Union, will continue to overhang the business for the full year of 2018. 

Ryanair said it expects to see weaker sterling and slower economic growth in both the UK - which makes about 26% of its revenues - and Europe. 

"We have responded by reducing our planned UK growth in 2017 from 12% to approx 5%, and switched this capacity to accelerate growth in markets such as Italy, Germany and other markets such as Belgium, where competitors are closing routes and bases," the airline added. 

Aer Lingus and British Airways owner IAG on Friday stuck to its main long-term earnings and margin growth targets but scaled back its plans to expand capacity. 

But budget rival EasyJet in October warned that annual profit had fallen by more than a quarter and hinted that trading would remain tough. 

Ryanair built its business by striking low-cost deals with small airports far from city centres, but today it said by the end of this year it will begin flying mainly to primary airports, increasing its competition with traditional legacy carriers. 

Last week it announced plans to fly from Frankfurt Main, one of Europe's busiest hubs. 

Mr O'Leary said an increased focus on selling additional services via its website and phone apps was also helping to boost sales of reserved seating and premium business fares. 

Ryanair's business model is to fill planes irrespective of ticket price to minimise passenger costs and boost spending on extras. 

It said today expected to secure 30% of its revenue from optional extras by 2020, up from 20%.