UK banks are likely to be told by the Bank of England tomorrow to put aside more money in case the country's economic recovery runs out of steam in future, as the central bank subtly shifts its policy stance.
But any tightening of the screws is likely to be modest.
The Bank of England has said the time is coming for banks to beef up their capital buffers against future losses as they lend more freely after the financial crisis.
This move could represent a back-door way of dampening the availability of credit.
The Bank of England was given wide powers over banks after the 2007-2009 financial crisis exposed the damage they can inflict on the economy.
It is is due to release its half-yearly Financial Stability Report tomorrow morning.
Banking analysts said they expected the bank to increase for the first time the "counter-cyclical capital buffer" (CCB) for banks, a tool meant to fine-tune risk-taking by lenders over the course of a credit cycle.
Currently set at zero, the CCB was introduced globally after the financial crisis forced taxpayers to rescue undercapitalised lenders.
Analysts said it could be increased by the Bank of England for UK lenders to 0.5%. A side-effect would be to dampen credit.
The Bank of England's deputy governor Jon Cunliffe said last month lending had entered a more normal phase and it might be best to start raising the CCB "sooner rather than later". Yet few expect a sharp increase.
Several BoE policymakers have been at pains in recent weeks to say the amount of capital banks already hold is in the right ballpark.
The buffer is part of so-called macroprudential policymaking that looks at risks missed by regulators in the run-up to the financial crisis, and it remains largely untested.
The Bank of England has said that setting the CCB is not about trying to second-guess where the economy is heading, and is rather about moving bank capital in line with actual risks.
Analysts said the Bank of England may seek to stem the flow of lending to the buy-to-let and commercial property sectors, following finance minister George Osborne's decision to increase transaction taxes on buy-to-let properties last week as he sought to rebalance the housing market in favour of homebuyers.
The Bank of England will announce tomorrow the results of its stress tests of how Britain's biggest banks would fare if the slowdown in emerging markets turns into a full-blown crisis, and a report into dwindling bond market liquidity, linked to big swings in normally staid debt markets.
Banks have blamed lower liquidity on tougher rules that make it more expensive for them to offer deep markets to investors at all times
