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Consumer sentiment slightly higher in October - KBC/ESRI

The survey shows consumers are notably more positive about the general economic environment than their own household finances
The survey shows consumers are notably more positive about the general economic environment than their own household finances

Irish consumer sentiment edged higher in October, reversing a slight weakening seen in September.

The overall KBC Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index increased from 100.6 in September to 101.3 last month.

The three-month moving average also increased in October to 101.0 from 100.5 in September.

There was a marginal downgrading of the outlook for employment in the October survey, in spite of a continuing sequence of new job announcements through the survey period.

Commenting on the results, Daniel Foley of the ESRI said: "Although overall sentiment increased, the Index of Current Economic Conditions fell moderately this month. This result is primarily driven by a worsening perception of the current buying climate."

Meanwhile Chief Economist at KBC Bank Ireland Austin Hughes said: "The current level of the sentiment index suggests there is now a reasonable degree of optimism among Irish consumers but a previously clear upward trend has given way to flatter readings of late, suggesting consumers may be struggling to disentangle the likely importance of contrasting influences on their economic and financial prospects.

"As a result, confidence has effectively remained unchanged through the past three months," he added.

The survey indicates an improvement in thinking on personal finances, although consumers are notably more positive about the general economic environment than their own household finances. 

Around 60% of respondents think the Irish economy will strengthen in the next 12 months, but only 29% see their personal finances improving, and just 24% say they have seen an improvement in their own financial situation in the last year.

Mr Hughes said: "Our sense is that the past few surveys suggest Irish consumers have been trying to weigh up the likely impact of a more uncertain global backdrop of late against the increasing prospect of income boosting measures in the Budget.

"Because the precise nature and extent of recent risks to the world economy remain unclear and the specifics of Budget 2016 were not known through most of the survey period, it is not entirely surprising that the Irish consumer sentiment index did not exhibit a clear trend in October," Mr Hughes added.

The October survey was completed during the first three weeks of October, with only 15% of responses received after Budget 2016.

The Budget was presented on 13 October and therefore the results do not reflect an assessment of the measures presented on Budget day itself.

However, they do capture the expectations that developed in relation to Budget 2016 in the run-up to Budget day.