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German investors rein in expectations for strong economy - ZEW index

German think tank ZEW's survey of economic sentiment fell to 53.3 points in April from 54.8
German think tank ZEW's survey of economic sentiment fell to 53.3 points in April from 54.8

German analysts and investors see further growth potential for Europe's biggest economy, though its already strong base means any further improvement may be limited.

This is according to the ZEW think tank's April survey, published today. 

The Mannheim-based institute said its monthly survey of economic sentiment fell to 53.3 points from 54.8 in March, undershooting a Reuters consensus forecast of 55.3 points. 

That was the indicator's first fall since October.

But a separate gauge of current conditions soared to 70.2 points from 55.1 in March, easily beating a consensus forecast for a reading of 56. 

ZEW said the world economy was dampening Germany's export prospects and reducing the potential for further improvement. 

Some economists also cited concerns about Greece's debt crisis as a factor in investors' weaker expectations. 

However, ZEW economists said the investors surveyed expected a "very good situation" to continue for at least the next half year and noted that German private consumption, seen as the mainstay of growth this year, would strengthen further. 

The German government is planning to raise its economic growth forecast for this year to 1.8% from its current estimate of 1.5% and sees a similar rate of growth for 2016, sources have told Reuters. 

Analysts said that strong tailwinds from a robust labour market, low oil prices and a competitively priced exchange rate as well as the reform successes in countries such as Spain are propelling the German economy forward. 

The Bundesbank agreed with that assessment in a report yesterday which said strong private consumption, low unemployment and rising wages would sustain Germany's upswing for some time to come, despite slower recent industrial performance. 

The ZEW index was based on a survey of 238 analysts and investors conducted between April 7-20.