German exports will likely grow by 4% in 2015 if no new global conflicts emerge, even though Western economic sanctions against Russia are likely to last a long time and may expand further.
This is according to Germany's BGA exporters' group.
Germany is Russia's biggest trading partner in the European Union, which along with the US has imposed financial and economic sanctions against Moscow this year over its backing for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
German exports to Russia fell 16.6% to €20.3 billion in the months from January to August and are expected to fall even more steeply in 2014 as a whole.
"The sanctions will be in place for a long time, we won't get rid of them," said BGA President Anton Boerner. "Rather they will likely get tougher."
He said German companies had already lost about a third of their business with Russia and added that decline was expected to continue next year, though he said the sanctions were necessary.
Although the German economy has lost growth momentum this year, overall exports have remained largely robust.
The BGA repeated its export growth forecast of 3% for 2014. Imports are projected to grow 2% this year, extending the trade surplus to €212.5 billion, while in 2015 imports are expected to grow 3.5%.
"Despite numerous political crises and economic risks we view global economic developments positively," said Boerner.
However, he warned that Germany was seeing its dominant share of global exports decline.
Its exports represented 7.7% of the global export market in 2013, down from 9.9% a decade earlier. High energy costs and ever rising labour costs were weighing on exporters, he added.
The BGA represents some 120,000 companies with annual sales of €1.8 trillion.
