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Japan's revised GDP figures signal economy in recession

Japan's economy contracted for a second quarter in a row during the three months from July to September.

This is according to revised government data showed today, which indicated that weak global demand has nudged the export-reliant economy into a mild recession.

Analysts expect another quarter of contraction in the final three months of this year due to sluggish exports to China.

This will keep the Bank of Japan under pressure to loosen monetary policy as early as this month. 

Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 0.9% in the third quarter from the second quarter, revised government figures showed, unchanged from preliminary data reported last month. That compared with economists' median forecast for a 0.8% contraction.

The government's revised GDP figures for April-June to show a small contraction of 0.03%, indicating that the economy contracted for two consecutive quarters and meeting the technical definition of a recession. The prior figure had shown growth of 0.1%.

Capital expenditure fell a revised 3%in the third quarter, compared with a 2.8% decline expected by economists and a preliminary reading of a 3.2% decline.

Separate data showed Japan's current account surplus fell 29.4% in October from a year earlier, compared with the median estimate for a 59.2% annual decline, largely due to shrinking exports and increasing costs of fuel oil imports.

Japan's consumer confidence and service sector business sentiment showed mixed results in November. The survey's sentiment index for general households, which includes views on incomes and jobs, fell for the third month in a row, prompting the government to cut its assessment on consumer confidence, saying there were signs of weakness.

Meanwhile, Japan's service sector sentiment index, a survey of workers such as taxi drivers, hotel workers and restaurant staff, slightly improved for the first time in four but the government kept its view on the index that the economy remained weak.

Japan's main opposition Liberal Democratic Party, a champion of big spending on public works, is on course to win a solid majority in a lower house election on December 16, according to media polls, and return to power for the first time since 2009.

A weak economic outlook and threats from politicians to limit the Bank of Japan's independence are likely to keep up pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy further.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura said last week the central bank will debate whether further stimulus is needed to support the economy, offering the strongest signal to date that it may loosen policy again at its next rate review on December 19-20 in the face of growing political pressure.