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NCB says Ireland on the 'right track'

NCB Stockbrokers have said that Ireland is showing the characteristics which are required to put the economy ''back on the right track''.

They said this differentiates Ireland from the rest of the euro zone periphery.

In its November Irish economy monitor, NCB predicts the economy will grow by 0.3% in 2012 - unchanged from its previous forecast.

It noted that while this is lower than the Government's forecast of 0.9%, consensus forecasts are continuing to drift down toward its figure.

NCB said that it sees the deficit to GDP figure still above the 3% mark in 2015 at 3.2%, while it predicts the deficit to GDP figure will peak at 120.7% in 2014.

''Despite the progress make to date, Ireland is still vulnerable to a further slowdown in economic growth, particularly due to external factors,'' the stockbrokers said.

They also said that while sentiment to Ireland has turned more positive, it is not certain whether the country will be able to entirely fund itself by 2014 and therefore may require further assistance.

But on a brighter note, they said that after several years of contraction, domestic demand is set to stabilise next year. This will help halt the deteriorating overall trend in property prices, mortgage arrears and retails sales, they add.

Today's report also included some research on the new Irish personal insolvency bill. NCB said the current regime is not fit for purpose, adding that between 2008 and 2011 only 87 people were declared bankrupt in Ireland. This compares to 135,045 bankruptcy procedures in England and Wales in 2010 alone.

The stockbrokers said that more than five years after the onset of the downturn, the new bill is ''unlikely to be a game changer in terms of the outlook for the Irish banks' loan losses''.

They said this was due to the fact that a large proportion of the stock of troubled mortgages has already been restructured and the prescribed forbearance techniques around secured debt are similar to those which have already been rolled out by the banks.

They also said that the hurdles debtors will need to negotiate to qualify for a debt settlement are significant and debt writedowns can not reduce the principle below the value of the security.