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US jobless claims point to steady labour market

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose only slightly last week after a big drop the week before.

This is keeping in place a trend that suggested a mild improvement in the labour market.

Other data showed a sharp drop in new orders for US factory goods as demand for aircraft collapsed and Americans eased off on automobile purchases.

But orders outside transportation rose for a second straight month, which should calm fears of a rapid loss of momentum in factory activity.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000, the Labor Department said, below economists' expectations for a rise to 370,000.

The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labour market trends, was unchanged at 375,000.

A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report and no states had been estimated.

Separately, the Commerce Department said new orders for manufactured goods tumbled 5.2% - the biggest drop since January 2009 when the economy was in the grip of a recession.

Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.7% in August after rising by the same margin the prior month.

Manufacturing has carried the economic recovery and while activity has cooled significantly in recent months, there are so far little signs of a hard landing.

The Institute for Supply Management's index of national manufacturing activity last month climbed above the 50 mark - which separates contraction from expansion - after three straight months below 50.

US stocks rose at the open on the claims data, and investors were also encouraged comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on tools to tackle the region's debt crisis. The dollar fell against the euro.

Despite fears of tighter fiscal policy next January, there is little sign that companies are responding by laying off workers on a wide scale.

A second report showed planned layoffs at US firms rose 4.9% in September. Despite the increase, the data marked a 15-year low in planned job cuts announced for the month of September, consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas said.

Last week's claims data fell outside the survey period for the September employment report, but applications dropped 18,000 from the first week of the month, signaling some improvement in the pace of job creation last month.

The Labour Department will release the closely watched employment report for September on Friday - a month before the 6 November presidential election.

Employers are expected to have added 113,000 jobs to their payrolls in September, an increase from 96,000 in August, with the unemployment rate edging up by a tenth of a percentage point to 8.2%, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

The anticipated modest improvement in labor market conditions has also been telegraphed by increases in measures of manufacturing and service sector jobs in September. In addition, payrolls processor ADP on Wednesday reported better than expected private sector jobs gains in September.

Worries over the so-called fiscal cliff - automatic tax hikes and government spending cuts that will suck about $600 billion out of the economy next year if lawmakers fail to agree how to slash the budget deficit - are making businesses cautious about ramping up hiring.

Fears of tighter fiscal policy are not yet filtering through to consumers. September sales at US retailers looked solid as shoppers finished up their back-to-school buying.

Sales at stores open at least a year at 17 chains tracked by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S rose 3.6%, matching analysts' expectations. In September 2011, such sales rose 6.4%.

Americans slow down spending in September

Monthly sales reports from major retailers are showing that Americans slowed down their spending in September as they took a pause after finishing their back-to-school buying.

As retailers announced their monthly results today, Limited Brands and Costco reported sales gains that beat analysts' expectations.

Target and Macy's posted sales increases that were below what analysts had projected.

The figures are based on revenue at stores opened at least a year.

They are considered a key indicator of a retailer's health because they exclude results from stores recently opened or closed.

But only a handful of merchants representing roughly 13% of the $2.4 trillion US retail industry reporter monthly revenue, and Target said that it will join rivals like Wal-Mart Stores and not report monthly figures anymore.

September's results, which followed robust spending by Americans in August, offers hope for retailers as they head into the winter holiday shopping season, a roughly two-month period in which they can make up to 40% of their annual revenue.

It is the latest sign that consumers are feeling a little better about the economy. That is important because consumer spending accounts for 70% of economic activity.

Right now, confidence is at a seven-month high as people are feeling better about rising home prices and a rebounding stock market.

Still job growth remains weak and prices for everything from food to gas are higher.

On top of that, there is a worry that the US economy will fall into another recession next year.

That is when tax increases and deep government spending cuts will take effect unless Congress reaches a budget deal.

With that as a backdrop, Target's revenue at stores open at least a year rose 2.1% as shoppers picked up back-to-school items and groceries.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a 2.2 increase.

Costco Wholesale's revenue at stores open at least a year rose 6%, above the 5.7% increase expected Wall Street.

And Limited Brands, operator of Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works and other stores, posted a 5% gain that topped the 4.3% rise analysts' forecast.

Conversely, Macy's posted a 2.5% increase last month that fell short of analysts' predictions of a gain of 3.3%.

Still, the retailer said combined August-September sales rose 3.6% and "were consistent with our positive year-to-date trend," said Terry Lundgren, the company's chairman.

Going forward, The National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group, is tempered its expectations for the winter holidays.

The group said this week that it expects sales for the November and December period to rise 4.1%.

That is more than a percentage point lower than the growth in each of the past years and the smallest increase since 2009 when sales were up just 0.3%.

But the forecast still is higher than the 3.5% average over the past 10 years.

Still, retailers have to get through October, which could be dicey.

Since the recession, stores have grappled with shoppers coming out to buy for certain holidays or periods like the back-to-school season, but they have pulled back once there is not any reason to shop.

This year, stores could face an even rockier October because of the impact of the presidential election.

Analysts say that shoppers typically pull back in the week before a presidential election.

However, sales typically rebound the next month after the political contest.

Factory orders fall on sharp decline in aircraft

Orders to US factories fell in August, mostly because of a sharp drop in volatile aircraft orders.

The decline offset an increase in orders that reflect corporate investment plans.

The Commerce Department says factory orders fell 5.2% in August, the biggest drop in more than three years.

The decline was largely because demand for commercial aircraft plunged 102%. That pulled down orders for long-lasting manufactured goods by 13.2%.

In one positive sign, orders for business equipment and software, often considered a proxy for investment plans, rose 1.1%, after two steep declines.

The value of orders for non-durable goods, which include food, clothing, and gas, rose 2.2%, mostly because gas prices were higher.