The Irish Times reports that the domestic economy and exports both grew solidly in the first quarter of the year, according to figures inadvertently published on the Central Statistics Office’s website yesterday.
A surge in imports pushed the two main measures of economic activity, GDP and GNP, into negative territory.
It is a quirk of GDP and GNP accounting that an increase in imports depresses both measures, even though an economy’s purchasing of goods and services from the rest of the world is a sign of strength, not weakness.
It is the surge in imports in the first three months of the year, by 4.9% quarter on quarter, that accounts for the contraction in both GDP and GNP. Imports are highly volatile owing to the purchases of items, such as aircraft, which can distort the figures.
Exports grew at 2.6% on the quarter, the fastest rate of increase in two years. The strong performance came despite a downturn in demand in most foreign markets in that period.
Domestic demand, which excludes exports and imports, has three components - consumer spending, Government current spending and spending on investment goods such as buildings and machinery.
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The Irish Independent takes a different slant on the same story saying that economic forecasts for this year and next were thrown into doubt last night after official data showed a sharp contraction in the first three months of the year.
Although revised figures for 2011 kept the economy out of a technical recession, the first-quarter slump threatens the targets in the EU bailout programme, analysts said.
The news was revealed accidentally just as officials from the EU, the IMF and the ECB, the so-called Troika, prepared to complete their seventh monitoring mission in Ireland.
The CSO said its national accounts figures for the first quarter were "inadvertently published on our website for a 15-minute period."
"Notwithstanding this, CSO has decided to adhere to its pre-determined release time," it said.
The data are scheduled to be released this morning. The brief glimpse yesterday showed growth last year was better than previously thought, but the contraction from January-March was worse than most forecasters expected.
Output of goods and services (GDP) slumped by 1.1% in the first quarter, the figures showed. National income, which deducted payments to foreigners, fell 1.3%.
But the previous estimate of a 0.2% fall at the end of last year was revised upwards to 0.7% growth. This resulted in the full-year growth for 2011 being doubled to 1.4%, bringing Ireland up to the euro zone average.
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The Irish Examiner reports that Dairygold is to invest €120m in the coming eight years upping its milk production capacity by 18.5m litres a week.
Currently, Dairygold processes 29m litres of milk per week, but is set to increase that by 4.3m litres by 2014 as part of its existing development plan.
The aim is to reach production levels of almost 52m litres per week by 2020.
The co-op said yesterday it has informed its 3,000 milk suppliers of its commitment to accept all the milk members will produce after the abolition of the milk quota system in 2015.
Dairygold’s suppliers have already forecasted a 63.5% increase in milk production levels - from 941m litres, currently, to 1.54bn litres - by 2020.
In order to facilitate such an increase, Dairygold is to invest €120m on upgrading its capacity.
The company is already upgrading its Mitchelstown-based plant; so much of the additional spend will go towards overhauling its well-established milk-drying facility in Mallow, a move which management claims will offer the business the flexibility its expansion programme requires.
The expansion work will allow, over a phased period, for the production of a number of new products such as whole milk powder, fat-filled milk powder and infant milk formula base.
The bulk, approximately €70m, of the new eight-year investment will come from bank lending, but €50m will come via co-op members through a number of loan payment schemes. The business is hoping to raise €15m from members over the next three years through an optional member’s loan note; but three other options - minimum shareholding, a revolving fund and a deferred payment mechanism - also exist.
Dairygold’s chairman, Bertie O’Leary said that the funding of the expansion will not hinder co-op members, but their assistance will be vital.
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The Financial Times reports that the head of Britain’s biggest employers’ group, the CBI, has strongly criticised the government for the “really disappointing” implementation of its growth plan, asking: “Where are the diggers on the ground?”
John Cridland, director-general of the CBI, said members of the government appeared to be “dazzled in the headlights”, resulting in a lack of progress on its growth plan seven months after George Osborne set out his plan to stimulate Britain's sluggish economy.
Mr Cridland attacked ministers for leaving road improvement plans to gather dust on their desks, for squabbling over renewable energy subsidies and failing to harness private finance to bolster the economy.
“I think it is really disappointing how long it is taking to get momentum and urgency into the growth plan,” he told the Financial Times.
