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Britain faces fourth year of record-low rates

Bank of England set to sit tight on rates tomorrow
Bank of England set to sit tight on rates tomorrow

The Bank of England is widely expected to hold its key interest rate at 0.5% at a meeting tomorrow, three years after deciding to slash borrowing costs to the current record-low level.

With Britain facing a possible return to recession, analysts expect the bank to again sit tight over the level of its main lending rate, which over the past three years has favoured people with home loans but disadvantaged savers.

The Bank of England's key rate has stood at 0.5% since March 2009 when the central bank also began to inject the British economy with £200 billion sterling under a radical policy known as quantitative easing (QE).

The amount has since been raised to £325 billion following two further interventions - the most recent of which was last month with an increase of £50 billion.

Under QE, the central bank creates new cash that is used to purchase assets such as government and corporate bonds in the hope of giving a boost to lending and economic activity.

Whether or not the Bank of England announces further QE in the coming months depends on a series of factors, according to economists. "With concerns over a euro area-based downturn having abated for now, the key questions concern whether the domestic recovery is gaining genuine momentum; whether UK inflation will prove relatively 'sticky'; and the role played by oil prices," said economist Philip Shaw at Investec.

The Bank of England's main task is to use monetary policy tools to try and keep Britain's annual inflation rate close to a government-set target of 2%. This has proved tricky in recent times owing to high oil prices, although consumer prices are now rising at a slower pace across the country.

The latest data showed that Britain's 12-month inflation rate fell sharply in January to 3.6% from 4.2%, as the previous year's sales tax hike fell out of the year-on-year comparison.

Meanwhile, Britain's economy shrank 0.2% in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the third, according to recent official data. A further contraction in the first quarter of 2012 would place Britain back in recession, defined as two successive negative quarters.

Britain's economy is faltering amid harsh state austerity measures, falling consumer spending, elevated oil prices and the ongoing fallout from the long-running debt crisis in key trading partner the euro zone.