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Consumer sentiment rises in May

Consumers - Sentiment up for four of five months this year
Consumers - Sentiment up for four of five months this year

Irish consumer sentiment improved modestly in May, its fourth rise in the first five months of the year.

The KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 59.4 from 57.9 in April, halting a decline seen a month ago.

The May figure is marginally less than the March figure of 59.5. Any figure over 50 signals growth.

The survey's author, KBC's chief economist Austin Hughes, stressed that the May figure suggests that Irish consumers are still 'fairly gloomy'.

However, Hughes said that 'the modestly improving trend seen thus far in 2011 suggests that consumers are becoming a little less fearful about the outlook for the economy as a whole and their own personal financial prospects'.

Irish consumers are adapting to a 'new normal' of persistent pressures on their spending power, the survey found.

The improvement in Irish sentiment is mirrored by gains in many other countries. Hughes noted a sharp jump in UK consumer sentiment last month.

The visit of Queen Elizabeth II and US president Barack Obama happened after the bulk of survey replies had been collected, so any 'special event' impact on sentiment will not be apparent until the June survey.

Sentiment in relation to Irish economic prospects improved in May. While recent news had not been good, it didn't seem 'to have been quite as bad as Irish consumers expected or feared'.

The survey found tentative signs of an easing in the scale of jobs worries.

Approximately half of those surveyed expect unemployment to rise in the next 12 months, a decrease on the 75% who thought this in last November's survey.

One person in five expects a decline in unemployment, an improvement on the one in 13 who thought this at the time of Ireland's EU/IMF bailout.

There was a deterioration in consumers' assessment of how their household finances had developed in the last 12 months, which Hughes said may reflect a continuing rise in the rate of inflation.

Hughes called the May results 'encouraging'. Sentiment remained 'fragile', but the results suggest 'a gradual improvement from the exceptional fears of late 2010 in continuing'.

'The main impetus to the improvement in sentiment came from a more optimistic assessment of future prospects, rather than current conditions,' said David Duffy of the ESRI.

'The forward-looking sub-index, the expectations index, increased to 50.8 in May, from 42.3 in April.

'In contrast, the index of current economic conditions weakened to 72.1 in May from 81.0 in April, as consumers became more negative in their perception of the current buying climate and their current household finances.'

Hughes added: 'Current readings still indicate that confidence is limited and spending is likely to be restrained. Importantly, the extreme fears that became widespread in late 2010 continue to fade.

'It remains the case that Irish consumers are worried about the risk of job loss but the degree of fear seems to be easing slightly.

'It may be that consumers are responding to tentative evidence of an easing in lay-offs and some limited pick-up in new hiring of late.'