House prices continue to fall in Ireland but the end of the property crash could be in sight in Dublin, where asking prices are now down by up to 56% since the peak in 2006, according to a new survey by two property websites.
Daft.ie's quarterly report shows a year on year drop of just over 14.6% with the highest peak to trough decrease in prices experienced in Dublin's city centre - 53% down since the height of the property boom in 2006.
A separate survey by website Myhome.ie also shows a continuing fall in house prices with a 4.1% drop in the first quarter of 2011 and a national peak-to-trough drop of 37.3 per cent nationally.
Myhome’s survey shows that in Dublin the drop in house prices was less sharp in the first quarter at 3.8% but the peak to trough fall is significantly higher at 43.5%, reflecting the larger falls in the past four years.
North Dublin has seen the biggest drop of all at over 56%, according to Myhome's quarterly Property Barometer, although Daft's figures show this area saw a smaller decline of 45.7%.
Some areas such as Limerick and Mayo, are expected to see even further decreases with house price drops between peak and trough at just 30 to 35%, nearly half of what they could be before they will rising again, according to Daft.ie.
The deadening influence of the recession is also reflected iin the time it takes to sell a home.
According to Daft, it now takes an average of nine months to sell property in Ireland but 30 per cent of homes are taking more than a year to shift.
But in some some areas in Connacht and Ulster properties are taking as taking as long as 15 months to sell.
Myhome reports that it takes three months to sell a house in Dublin, five months in Leinster, 7 months in Munster and 13 months in Connaught and Ulster.
The Daft.ie report and Myhome reports come just days after Sherry Fitzgerald, one of the country’s largest estate agents reported that house prices in Dublin have dropped 55.8% from peak.
Reports chime with recent stress tests on mortgage defaults
This chimes with the recent economic modelling undertaken by the US asset management firm, BlackRock Solutions, which conducted the recent stress tests on the four main Irish banks for future mortgage defaults.
They worked on the basis that at best house prices across the country would fall 55 per cent peak-to-trough and at worse would fall 60 per cent.
“If BlackRock are talking about a 50 to 60% fall across the country, it looks like Dublin is nearly there or will reach that sooner than the rest of the country which is only half way there," said Lyons.
DKM Economic Consultants said further price reductions were likely because of unemployment, falls in income, increase in the cost of living and lack of lending in the market.
“ It remains to be seen if the recent bank recapitalisation measures will ultimately get credit flowing again,” said Annette Hughes.
Myhome’s figures show Donegal and Longford are among the cheapest to live. The median asking price for a three-bed semi in Longford is now €149,000 and €155,000 in Donegal.
North Dublin experienced the highest quarterly decline of all urban locations according to Myhome survey with the median asking price now at €172,000. The annual decline in the area was 25 per cent.
The table below shows how north Dublin compares to the rest of the capital which is still the most dynamic property market.
|Dublin area||Median Price Q1 2011||Change Q1 2011||Annual change||Cchange since peak|
According to Daft house prices fell by 3.1% between January and March, the second smallest quarterly fall since early 2008. The average asking price in the first quarter of 2011 was just over €212,000, compared to €366,000 in mid-2007.
But there are huge differences across the country as can be seen in the following tables supplied by Daft
DUBLIN - % fall peak to trough
North County Dublin – 41.5%
West County Dublin – 44.5%
South County Dublin – 45.5%
North Dublin City – 45.7%
Dublin City Centre – 53.2%
South Dublin City – 46.8%
Dublin City Centre has seen the largest drops in the entire country at 53.2%.
Outside of Dublin the house price drops are as follows:
LEINSTER - % fall peak to trough
Louth - 47.3%
Meath - 45.1%
Wicklow - 43.9%
Wexford - 46.5 %
Carlow - 42.7%
Kilkenny - 44.3%
Laois - 45.9%
Offaly - 41.4%
Westmeath - 43.5%
Longford - 44.0%
Leinster counties saw construction booms in the Celtic Tiger years with spiralling property prices in the capital forcing populations west into sprawling estates in new "commuter belts" towns such as Mullingar, Longford and Dunboyne.
MUNSTER - % fall peak to trough
Tipperary - 35.8%
Limerick City - 30.9%
Limerick County - 34.3%
Waterford County - 38.9%
Waterford City - 40.5%
Cork City - 39.6%
Cork County - 41.2%
Kerry - 34.9%
Clare - 38.6%
Munster has seen some of the smallest falls in asking prices from the peak and the total housing stock for sale in the province remains very high at 20,000 compared to Dublin where there are just 5,500 properties on the market.
CONNACHT AND ULSTER - % fall peak to trough
Donegal - 37%
Leitrim - 44.2%
Monaghan - 45.3%
Cavan - 38.8%
Roscommon - 39.2%
Galway city - 42.3%
Galway - 42%
Mayo - 33%
Sligo - 39.3%
House prices in Mayo are among the slowest to fall according to the Daft survey which suggests there is some way to go before they bounce back.