NCB PREDICTS TWO-TIER RECOVERY - This morning sees the first big report of the year from a local investment advisers on the state of the nation. NCB Stockbrokers says the country will go into the permanent rescue mechanism for distressed European states once the current temporary measures are replaced from 2013. The 'Ireland Moves Forward' report also predicts a two-tier economy recovery and says that house prices have another 10% fall ahead of them.
The chief economist at NCB, Brian Devine, says that Ireland will need further EU aid after 2013 and says that any lower interest rates we manage to secure on the EU funds will not be a 'magic bullet' for the country's economic woes. He says the country is fiscally challenged and it will take a number of years of correct things. He says that Ireland can expect some news from the EU summit in March, but adds that the €15 billion fiscal consolidation will be still need to be done no matter what party is in government here.
On the possibility of selling state assets to raise capital, Mr Devine says that the likes of Coillte, VHI and the generating divisions of Bord Gáis and the ESB look like prime candidates. But he says the sale of these state assets are just stop gaps in the funding problem and what the country needs is an accumulative measure to cut expenditure.
***
MORNING BRIEFS - Elan has reported operating profits, before other charges and gains, for the first time since 2001. Revenues for the 12 months to the end of December rose by 5% to $1.2 billion, led by an 18% increase in revenues from its multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri. Sales of the MS drug hit $851.5m for the full year from $724.3m in 2009. The number of patients using the drug worldwide rose by 17% to about 56,000.
*** On the currency markets, the euro is worth $1.3644 US cents and 84.45 pence sterling.
