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Oil falls despite OPEC forecast lift

OPEC - Urges caution in predicting oil demand trends
OPEC - Urges caution in predicting oil demand trends

Crude oil prices fell a fourth straight day today as concerns about faltering economic growth's effect on oil were not helped by fresh US data.

US retail sales rebounded in July but the gains were concentrated in cars and petrol station sales and showed hints of lingering economic weakness.

US crude fell 40 cents to $75.34 a barrel, while London Brent crude fell 52 cents to $75.

Oil prices were on track to end 6% lower from a week ago, having been pummeled earlier in the week by a US jobless claims rise and an increase in US refined fuel stockpiles, incidacting sluggish energy demand.

Earlier, the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries today revised upwards its world oil demand growth estimate for 2010 to 1.2% but urged caution in predicting future trends.

'Given stabilised oil demand in the US, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised up by 0.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to show growth of 1.05 million bpd or 1.2%,' the cartel said in its monthly report.

Total demand for 2010 was now expected to reach 85.5 million bpd, up from 84.46 million bpd in 2009. The cartel warned, however, that a slower economy in the second half of the year, caused by a phasing out of fiscal stimulus, would likely affect demand.

'Looking to the second half, the pace of economic growth is projected to slow, not only in the OECD countries but also across most emerging and developing markets, indicating that oil demand growth will remain moderate', the report said.

'There is need to be cautious about forecasting oil demand for the remainder of 2010,' it added.

'Moreover, other factors such as government policies could impact growth in demand,' it added, citing plans by the Chinese government to meet environmental targets by the end of the year which could cut into oil demand in the country.

'For the whole year, oil demand growth is expected at around 1 million bdp, lower than the pre-recession annual average of around 1.7 million bpd,' OPEC noted. 'Next year, the situation is not expected to be much different,' it added.