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US slump not officially over yet

US economy - Too early to say if recession over - NBER
US economy - Too early to say if recession over - NBER

The organisation which officially determines the state of the US economy has said it remains in recession, despite positive signs of growth.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) said its 'business cycle-dating committee' met on Thursday to review the most recent figures relevant to deciding whether there was an end to the recession that began in December 2007.

An NBER statement said that, although most economic measures had picked up, it would be premature to say the slump was over. 'Many indicators are quite preliminary at this time and will be revised in coming months,' it said.

The private, non-partisan NBER, which includes many of the leading US economists, determines the month when recessions begin and end. The dates are regularly used as references by economists and authorities.

The NBER does not use the common definition of recession as two consecutive quarters in which economic output fell. It makes its determination on GDP and other factors including employment levels, industrial production cycles and household incomes.

It took the NBER a year to determine that the recession began in December 2007, and on Thursday the committee confirmed that date following a review of data.

Most economists believe the economy turned the corner to expansion between June and August of 2009, which would make the recession the longest since the Great Depression that started in August 1929 and ended in March 1933.