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CSO distances itself from leaked jobs figures

Live Register - More women join dole queues
Live Register - More women join dole queues

Live Register figures for January published this morning show an increase of just over 13,300 people signing on compared with December. The number of people signing on in January was 436,936.

When seasonal factors are taken into account the increase for January is 5,800, bringing the seasonally adjusted figure to 434,700.

The seasonally adjusted increase was the biggest since August last year, after a few months in which the figure appeared to be stabilising.

Women accounted for 3,400 of the monthly increase, with 2,400 more men joining the dole queues.

The annual increase in the Live Register slowed, however, as the headline figure for January was 34% higher than in the same month last year, compared with a 46% increase in the 12 months to December.

The estimated unemployment rate is now 12.7%, compared with 12.5% last month. The Budget forecast an average unemployment rate of 13.2% for the year.

CSO distances itself from leaked figures

The Central Statistics Office has issued a statement distancing itself from leaked figures on the January Live Register which showed the increase in numbers signing on was 8,000 instead of the real figure of 5,800.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen used the figure of 8,000 in the Dáil, which was based on a briefing to Government from the Department of Social and Family Affairs.

'The figures widely quoted in the media today and yesterday regarding the Live Register totals for January were not sourced from the CSO,' a statement from the Central Statistics Office said.

'In line with its general release policy, the CSO does not pre-release the Live Register figures to anybody before the day of publication. The CSO was not involved in (and did not in any way facilitate) the unofficial release of figures yesterday - indeed we actively discourage any such practice. The increase of 5,800 is the official figure as communicated by us at 11am this morning,' the statement added.

The CSO said it is aware that the Department of Social and Family Affairs (from whom the CSO receives the Live Register information) provides a briefing to the wider Government system on movements in the Live Register.

It explained that this briefing is based on a slightly earlier cut of the raw (unadjusted) figures than those used for compilation of the official figures by the CSO.

'Furthermore, the seasonal factors used to estimate the seasonally adjusted figures in the briefing document are not up to date as the CSO recalculates the factors to take account of the latest information,' the statisticians concluded.

'Competitiveness key to employment growth'

In the Dáil, the Taoiseach insisted that the only way to improve the employment situation was to get competitiveness back into the economy. He was responding to opposition criticism of the latest unemployment figures. Mr Cowen said the Live Register increase was the second highest for a January.

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny said the figures were 'devastating', and - combined with yesterday's Exchequer returns - amounted to a 'litany of despair from a government that has failed to put any strategy in place'.

He said that the real figure if the valve of emigration was not open would be half a million out of work.

Labour leader Eamon Gilmore pointed out that 319 people had lost their jobs every day since the New Year, and that one out of every three young men aged between 21 and 24 was on the dole.