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OECD area shakes off recession

OECD - Modest rebound predicted
OECD - Modest rebound predicted

Top industrialised economies broke free of recession in the third quarter despite falling output in Britain, OECD data showed today, but the IMF warned that the recovery was 'vulnerable'.

Data released by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development echoed a lengthier OECD analysis last week that said the rebound would be modest at best, with governments now forced to wind down huge, debt-aggravating rescue spending.

The 30 OECD economies showed growth of 0.8% from output in the second quarter when they had scarcely touched the end of recession with zero growth.

The report found that overall in six of the Group of Seven countries, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US, gross domestic product expanded 0.7% from the second quarter, when zero growth was recorded.

There was no official estimate available for the third quarter in Canada, which is also a member of the Group of Seven.

The OECD said that among the six leading industrialised states there was wide variation in third quarter performances, ranging from growth of 1.2% in Japan to a 0.4% contraction in Britain.

For Britain, although the situation was improving, the data marked the sixth quarter running of contraction quarter by quarter. The US economy, after shrinking 0.2% in the second quarter, expanded 0.9% in the July to September period.

The euro zone showed third-quarter growth of 0.4% after a 0.2% shrinkage in the second, according to the OECD.

On Britain, which has been unable to share in the recovery enjoyed by several of its European Union partners, the OECD last week urged the British government to outline plans to nurse its finances back to health.

'By developing and announcing more ambitious fiscal consolidation plans early and supporting them with a strong and credible medium-term fiscal framework, the government would strengthen the recovery,' the OECD said.

The OECD also forecast that the British economy would shrink by 4.7% this year - worse than the prior estimate of a 4.3% contraction - followed by modest growth of 1.2% in 2010.