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Exports fall dents German confidence

German economy - Surprise fall in investor sentiment
German economy - Surprise fall in investor sentiment

A survey has shown a surprise drop in sentiment among German analysts and investors in October, the first fall for three months.

The monthly poll by the ZEW think-tank hit its lowest level since July, suggesting Europe's largest economy will recover only gradually.

The ZEW index fell to 56 from 57.7 in September. Analysts had expected a figure of around 58.3.

Hopes have been rising about the outlook for the German economy in recent months, fuelled by a rise in industrial orders and a pick-up in foreign demand. But much of this has been put down to government stimulus measures and senior policymakers have said the recovery is not yet self-supporting.

The ZEW said a fall in exports in August - the last month for which data are available - had probably dampened sentiment, noting that there was uncertainty about how private spending would develop in the coming months.

Leading authorities have begun to revise up their economic forecasts for Germany, with sources in the government saying Chancellor Angela Merkel's administration is now expecting a contraction of 4.5% to 5% this year. The government had previously forecast the economy would shrink by around 6%.