A forward-looking US economic index rose for a third consecutive month in June, according to a business research group. The news is being seen as another sign that the country's brutal recession is near an end.
The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators, a measure of economic conditions in the coming months, climbed 0.7% in June after a 1.3% increase in May and a 1% rise in April. The increase was stronger than market forecasts.
'The recession has been losing steam since the spring, although very large job losses continue,' said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein.
He said confidence was slowly rebuilding, financial markets were less volatile and even the housing market was stabilising. 'If these trends continue, expect a slow recovery this autumn,' Mr Goldstein said.
But other indices in the survey remained weak. The index of current activity fell 0.2% in June, following a 0.3% decline in May.
The forward-looking leading index was helped by positive views on interest rates, building permits, share prices, weekly unemployment claims, average weekly manufacturing hours and orders for consumer goods and materials.
Recession's grip is easing - US survey
A survey of economists in the US has said the recession's grip on the country's economy appears to be easing but it is likely that it has not yet ended.
The National Association for Business Economics' quarterly industry survey found that demand was stabilising, but a small majority of the 102 respondents said their firms had not yet seen the bottom.
The survey 'provides new evidence that the US recession is abating, but few signs of an immediate recovery,' said Sara Johnson, managing director of global macroeconomics for IHS Global Insight, which helped analyse the report for the NABE.
She said demand from industry was still declining in the second quarter of 2009, but 'the breadth of decline had narrowed considerably since late 2008, raising prospects for stabilization in the second half'.
The US recession, which dates from December 2007, is the longest since the Great Depression and the deepest in decades. Most economists look for growth to return in the second half of the year, but they warn that the recovery is likely to be sluggish.
The NABE survey found that profitability remained weak in the second quarter. Companies reporting declining profits outnumbered companies posting higher profits for the sixth straight quarter. But the rate at which profits are shrinking is slowing.
55% of those surveyed believe the US economy's low point has not yet been hit, with 14% projecting that their companies will see their lowest sales in 2010 or beyond. 45%, however, said the worst was already over.
