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'Jobless rate could hit 15%' warning

Jobless - Stark warning on 2009 figures
Jobless - Stark warning on 2009 figures

Economic commentator Jim Power has predicted that the country's unemployment rate could increase to 15% by this time next year. He said the country was facing a serious labour market crisis.

His prediction came as a document from the body representing the construction industry warned of up to 55,000 job losses in the sector.

Mr Power said a jobless rate of 15% was 'easy to see' by this time next year. This would mean that 420,000 people would be signing on the Live Register, compared with almost 300,000 in December.

The unemployment rate is currently running at 8.3% according to December figures released by the Central Statistics Office earlier this month. FÁS has already said that unemployment could increase to 12% by this time next year. In December, the ESRI predicted that unemployment would rise to 10% in 2009.

Mr Power, who is chief economist at Friends First, said the country is facing a labour market crisis.

Speaking on RTÉ Radio 1, Mr Power said it was difficult to see any area of the economy that would be a net job creator over the next 12 months and easy to see areas of the economy losing jobs.

Mr Power said most of the economy was contracting including manufacturing, financial services, construction, hospitality and retail while there was a freeze in the public sector.

He said there had been a sense of waiting until January to see if times got better before cutting jobs and he warned that many more retail jobs could be cut once the January sales are over.

He said the recession was feeling like a depression because so many people knew friends and colleagues who were losing their jobs and starting to feel very nervous about their own job prospects.