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Migration drop to ease jobs slowdown

Construction jobs - No collapse - AIB
Construction jobs - No collapse - AIB

AIB has warned that it expects demand for labour to ease this year and next, especially in construction and manufacturing, as the economy slows down.

In its latest report on labour market trends the bank forecasts that labour force growth will slow from 4.5% in 2006 to 3.5% this year, and 2.5% in 2008.

The bank says reduced demand is likely to coincide with a 'significant' fall in the supply as the level of net migration peaks, and with the low birth rates in the 1990s leading to declines in the indigenous labour force also.

The report says around 68,000 jobs will be created in 2007, though it sees only 40,000 new jobs created in 2008.

AIB chief economist, John Beggs, said that recent job loss announcements had to be seen against the background of other indicators which painted a somewhat less bleak picture of the employment outlook.

'Overall, while growth rates are set to slow considerable, we are not unduly pessimistic about labour market prospects', he said.

The report said that it may take time for announced job losses to take effect, with manufacturing expected to come under pressure and a renewed contraction in the sector possible.

AIB expects the pace of employment growth in the construction sector to slow, as the supply of new housing reaches a peak.

'However, given the strength of activity in other areas of the construction sector, a collapse dose not appear imminent', Mr Beggs said.

He said construction could add nearly 12,500 jobs on average in 2007, compared with the 24,000 added last year, with this number to fall to 10,000 in 2008.