The US index of leading economic indicators rebounded in June, with a stronger-than-expected 0.9% rise, the Conference Board said today.
The increase puts the index at 137.7 in June, from an upwardly revised reading of 136.5 in May, and indicates that the US economy is set to maintain the current pace of economic activity over the next few months, said Ken Goldstein, a labour economist at the Conference Board.
In June, economists were expecting a 0.5% rise in the index, which seeks to gauge activity in the coming six to nine months.
The June data included a change in how the private research firm calculates the index. The Conference Board had found that its previous method of measuring the yield curve - or the difference between short-term and long-term rates - overstated the negative impact of a flat yield curve.
The rise in June followed five straight months without an increase, raising fears of a sharp deceleration in the US economy. But based on the revised method, the leading index has increased at a 1.2% annual rate over the past six months; this is down from a peak of about 10% at the end of 2003.
The Conference Board said other related indexes were higher. Its coincident index, measuring current conditions, increased 0.2% in June, following a 0.1% rise in May and a 0.3% increase in April. The lagging index rose 0.3% in June, after a 0.4% increase in May and a 0.3% increase in April.
Meanwhile, manufacturing in the Philadelphia
region rebounded in July, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said today.
The Philly Fed's activity index rose to 9.6 in July from
-2.2 in June. The increase was roughly in line with expectations.
The index for new orders rose to 5 in July from 2.5 in June. Despite the increase in overall conditions, the employment index slipped to 3.4 from 7.1 in June.
'Indicators for general activity, shipments and new orders were all up from their readings in June,' the bank said.
'Firms continue to report a rise in prices for inputs and for their own finished goods; both of these price indexes increased slightly this month,' the bank said.
'Despite the improvement in current conditions,
respondents were less optimistic about future conditions this month than in June. However, they still expect manufacturing growth to continue,' it added.
