According to a study of neurologists by bankers Morgan Stanley, doctors are keen to adopt Elan's multiple sclerosis drug Antegren.
Morgan Stanley analysts said the survey of 105 high-prescribing US specialists in the disorder increased their confidence that Antegren would capture 30% of the market and reach global sales of $2 billion by 2008.
Antegren, which is expected to be launched next year, is a new class of drug for fighting MS and a key product for the fortunes of both Elan and its marketing partner Biogen. Antegren is administered as a monthly infusion, or drip, in the doctor's office. In Europe Antegren is not expected to be launched until 2006.
Morgan Stanley said the need for infusion equipment might limit use of the new product initially, since only 35% of neurologists surveyed had infusion capabilities, but the survey found 86% said this would only be a constraint for the first six months.
The bank estimated that the total US market for MS drugs would grow to $3.8 billion in 2010 from $1.8 billion last year with the EU market reaching $3 billion from $1.8 billion.
The new product will compete with existing treatments such as Biogen's established drug Avonex, Rebif from Serono, Betaferon from Schering and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd's Copaxone.
