An economist has said that home buyers waiting for the collapse of the Irish 'housing bubble' are likely to be disappointed.
Writing in the forthcoming issue of the CPA journal Accountancy Plus, Ulster Bank's Pat McArdle admits that many commentators were wrong in their assessment of the housing market.
'Not only did the expected slowdown not occur during 2003, but the early indications are that 2004 has seen continued growth trends in the housing market,' he says.
Mr McArdle believes affordability is they key to understanding what has happened. He says this has improved in recent years, enabling borrowers to service much higher mortgages.
The economist adds that Ireland is not yet oversupplied with houses, despite record levels of building last year. But he believes demand is likely to be satisfied in the 'not too distant future', and that price inflation will tail off sharply when this happens.
Mr McArdle says the two potential negatives are unemployment and interest rates. But he says unemployment is likely to remain low, while it is 'pretty well inconceivable' that interest rates will rise to levels experienced before Ireland joined the euro.
