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Education hikes push inflation higher

The annual rate of inflation increased slightly to 4.6% in October, according to the Central Statistics Office. The rate had stood at 4.5% for the previous two months.

Consumer prices rose by 0.5% in October compared with September. The EU harmonised index of consumer prices was up 0.4% in the month and 4.4% on an annual basis.

The education sector was a major factor in the monthly rise, with hikes in third level student registration and tuition fees, third level maintenance costs and private primary and secondary fees.

Annual inflation in the education sector is now running at 11.6%, while health inflation is at 9.6%.

Costs in the areas of housing. water, electricity and other fuels also rose strongly in October - up by 0.9% on average - mainly reflecting larger mortgages and a 6% increase in home heating oil.

IIB economist Austin Hughes says prices are likely to rise further next month with some possibility of a rate just below 5% before the end of the year. He says the near term peak for inflation is likely to be highly dependent on what Charlie McCreevy does to indirect taxes in the budget.

Hughes thinks the continuing upward pressure on Irish prices will create a poor backdrop for talks on a new pay deal and will harden union opposition to any thoughts of a pay freeze.

He says a continuing grind higher in domestic costs will further weaken the chances of an early turnaround in activity and employment in the Irish economy during 2003.