The growth rate in Ireland will not exceed 3% according to Friends First chief economist Jim Power.
Power says a recovery in the Irish economy is largely dependent on a V-shaped recovery in the US economy, which cannot be taken for granted given the range of uncertainties that exist.
Presenting his 'Outlook for the Irish Economy in 2002' Power said that unemployment may rise to 5.5% by the end of 2002, and predicted a fall in house prices of 10%.
'House prices have increased by 150% since 1997,' Power said. 'Those with relatively new mortgages who have paid a high price for property are most exposed.'
Looking beyond 2002 Power predicts a return to stronger growth in 2003, at a more modest rate of 4.5% over the next 5 years.
