Ireland's changing social structure and the impact of rapid economic growth will mean only a slim majority of the electorate will vote to endorse the Treaty of Nice, according to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Ireland is the only one of the 15 EU states which is conducting a referendum on the treaty, which has been pencil led in by the government for May 31.
In the 3 years since Ireland's last referendum on the EU, enthusiasm for membership has cooled, down 5% according to the biannual Eurobarometer poll. According to the Economist, this dampening in enthusiasm reflects changing interests as Ireland's Celtic Tiger has seen the country grow from European laggard to leader in less than a decade.
The report lists five changes that will bolster the strength of the no camp:
1) Ireland's new found wealth will turn us from a net gainer to a net contributor to the EU budget within 5 years.
2) As traditional farming continues its decline, the strongly pro-Euro constituency dependent on the EU system of generous farm subsidies makes up a smaller percentage of voters.
3) As the economy has changed, the importance of Irish exports to the US market has increased. In 1998 Germany was a more important export market than the US, but by the end of 2001, US exports are likely to account for the same share as Germany, France and Italy combined. The Economist suggests that the large presence of US firms in Ireland has had an Americanising effect on politicians and business leaders.
4) The high-profile disagreement between the European Commission and Minister for Finance Charlie McCreevy over his pro-cyclical 2001 budget may have encouraged an 'us against the rest' attitude in Irish voters.
5) Finally, although the Nice Treaty involves no advance on existing security and defence plans, small but vocal groupings opposed to any compromise of Ireland's neutrality may face a more receptive audience, particularly following Fianna Fail's back-tracking on its commitment to hold a referendum on participation in Nato's Partnership for Peace (PFP).
The report concludes that all these changes should not be enough to overturn previous majorities in favour of greater European integration, but observers should not be surprised if the vote goes the other way.
