Here we are again, with fingers crossed that the Irish nominees will have plenty to celebrate in the wee small hours in Los Angeles. Harry Guerin shares his predictions.
In a record-breaking year, there's already one Oscar in the bag.
Special effects maestro Richard Baneham - a winner in 2010 for his work on Avatar - is guaranteed to win Best Visual Effects with his Avatar: The Way of Water colleagues.
But the biggest Sunday night in Irish cinema history could become the biggest Monday morning if the stars align...
Sure, a couple of things need to happen - more of that anon - but there might be anywhere up to five Oscars coming Ireland's way.
Here's a look at the nominations closest to home and in other key categories.
Film Editing
The Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin, Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Elvis, Jonathan Redmond and Matt Villa
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Paul Rogers
Tár, Monika Willi
Top Gun: Maverick, Eddie Hamilton
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Paul Rogers
Dubliner Jonathan Redmond has received his first Oscar nomination in this category for his work alongside his Elvis colleague Matt Villa. The Editing winner usually mirrors the Sound winner - and Top Gun: Maverick is way out in front as the Sound favourite. Everything Everywhere All at Once and Top Gun: Maverick won at the American Cinema Editors 73rd ACE Eddie Awards earlier this month, and the Top Gun sequel also won at the Cinema Audio Society Awards. Although Everything Everywhere doesn't have a Sound nomination, this year looks like being a Sound-Editing split with high-wire beating high-altitude here. Everything Everywhere's Paul Rogers will need a bigger mantelpiece - he's also won the BAFTA, Critics Choice and Independent Spirit gongs.
Actress in a Supporting Role
The Nominees:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Talk about a cliffhanger! Angela Bassett won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice gongs. Kerry Condon won the BAFTA. Jamie Lee Curtis appeared to be out of the running - until she won at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards earlier this month. Here's the rub: the SAG Awards and the Oscars have mirrored each other 20 times since 1995 - and final Oscars voting finished on Tuesday. Has Curtis the late-surge power to take her over the line? The favourite for so long, Bassett's previous nomination was way back in 1994 for her portrayal of Tina Turner in What's Love Got to Do With It, with a whole career of acclaim in between. But Curtis' career stretches further back; this is her first nomination, and could Bassett's nomination for a Marvel movie that isn't nominated for Best Picture work against her? Or - deep breath - could Kerry Condon win because of a split in the vote between Bassett and Curtis? Or a move away from Bassett and Curtis and co-star Stephanie Hsu cancelling each other out? It's an ask, but this one is still all to play for!
Live-Action Short Film
The Nominees:
An Irish Goodbye, Tom Berkeley and Ross White
Ivalu, Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
Le Pupille, Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
Night Ride, Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
The Red Suitcase, Cyrus Neshvad
Predicted Winner: An Irish Goodbye
Just a gut feeling that BAFTA winner An Irish Goodbye could have its big night on star James Martin's 31st birthday instead of the longtime favourite, Le Pupille. The Northern Irish short is the only English-language nominee; it has the comedy-drama mix like Banshees, it's in a great year for Irish nominees, and James' message that "anybody can act, it doesn't matter if you have Down's syndrome" is at the heart of this film and its Oscars campaign. Every good wish for a rub of the green to James, co-star Séamus O'Hara, writer-directors Tom Berkeley and Ross White and all the team. You can watch An Irish Goodbye on RTÉ One on Saturday at 10:40pm and on catch-up on RTÉ Player.
Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees:
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guaranteed Winner: Ke Huy Quan
Talk about goodwill! Everything Everywhere All at Once star Ke Huy Quan is the favourite and then some in this category. He has already picked up the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) prizes, with the SAG winner going on to win the Oscar on 19 occasions since 1995. Yes, Barry Keoghan won the BAFTA, but this will be Quan's year. He's the former child star - remember him in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The Goonies? - who went behind the lens to work as part of the crew when the roles dried up and now has made a triumphant comeback in front of the camera. That's the kind of story Oscar voters love. Expect a great speech - and not a dry eye in the house.
Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front, Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Rian Johnson
Living, Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverick, Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer
Women Talking, Sarah Polley
Guaranteed Winner: Women Talking, Sarah Polley
Actor-turned-writer-director Sarah Polley's superb adaptation of the Miriam Toews page-turner Women Talking deserved far more recognition than the two Oscar nominations - the other is for Best Picture - it has received. Polley recently won at the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards, where some of her fellow Oscar nominees were ineligible under WGA rules, and momentum is with her. Glass Onion is too jaunty, Top Gun: Maverick is an action movie, All Quiet on the Western Front is a remake and Living is adapted from the 1952 Japanese film Ikiru. More evidence? Academy voters love an actor that goes behind the lens, and in a year when female filmmakers were once again absent from the Best Director shortlist, this is an opportunity to partly right that wrong by honouring Polley.
International Feature Film
The Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
Argentina, 1985, Argentina
Close, Belgium
EO, Poland
The Quiet Girl, Ireland
Guaranteed Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
All Quiet on the Western Front was the favourite at the start - and nothing has changed since. Like the last three winners in this category - Drive My Car, Parasite, Roma - All Quiet on the Western Front is shortlisted for Best Picture. It also has nominations in seven other categories. It would be one of the biggest shocks of the night - nay, Academy Awards history - were it not to win as part of a trifecta that will see Navalny win Best Documentary Feature and Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio win Best Animated Feature. The victory for An Cailín Ciúin (The Quiet Girl) was getting to Oscars night when stalwart countries didn't. Out of 93 films submitted in this category, Ireland's own made the final five and, crucially, the breakthrough for Irish-language cinema at the Oscars. The future is very bright.
Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Predicted Winner: Brendan Fraser
Since 1995, there have been 22 years where the Best Actor winner at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards also went on to win the Academy Award. The Whale's Brendan Fraser won the SAG gong earlier this month. His Oscars campaign has two other things that voters love: it's a triumphant comeback, and it's a performance that required a physical transformation. Another thing Academy voters love is an actor portraying a real-life person - will that shade it for BAFTA winner Austin Butler as the King of Rock 'n' Roll? Will The Whale's lack of a Best Picture nomination work against Fraser and get Butler the gong? As great as Colin Farrell is in The Banshees of Inisherin, the other two are the kind of everything-and-the-kitchen- sink performances the Oscars crave. The Dubliner is, as usual, taking it all in his stride. His Oscars assessment last month? "It's a moment in time - and then move on." But one can dream in the meantime...
Actress in a Leading Role
The Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh
The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards and the Oscars have mirrored each other for Best Actress 20 times since 1995. Everything Everywhere All at Once star Michelle Yeoh won the SAG prize earlier this month - the first Asian woman to receive the honour. Tár's Cate Blanchett already has two Academy Awards - Best Actress for Blue Jasmine, Best Supporting Actress for The Aviator - and once again is in contention to join Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand, Meryl Streep and others in the three Oscars club. Will voters opt for a first-time winner because of that? More importantly, Yeoh would also become the first Asian woman to win Best Actress. At the SAG Awards, she said: "This is not just for me, this is for every little girl who looks like me." In the final week of voting, that will have resonated.
Director
The Nominees:
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Guaranteed Winners: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Here's a real anorak of a statistic: the winner of the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award has been honoured with the Best Director Oscar on all but eight occasions since the 1940s. Everything Everywhere All at Once duo Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan - aka Daniels - won the DGA gong earlier this month. Their main challenger is Steven Spielberg - already a winner for Saving Private Ryan and Schindler's List. Spielberg's beautiful The Fabelmans will play better with older Academy voters than the mind-bending Everything Everywhere, but the Academy is more diverse than it used to be, and the Daniels pushed the medium behind the lens in a way that The Fabelmans couldn't by the nature of its story. The question is whether the Daniels will do the treble and win Best Picture and Original Screenplay too? That could be tougher than some think...
Original Screenplay
The Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans, Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg
Tár, Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness, Ruben Östlund
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once is the favourite, but could a Banshees of Inisherin win be on the cards here for writer-director Martin McDonagh as voters try to honour as many standout films as possible? Everything Everywhere won at the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards, but Banshees wasn't eligible on the night, as McDonagh isn't a WGA member. He's already an Oscar winner for his short film Six Shooter back in 2006 and has previous Best Original Screenplay nominations for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and In Bruges. Could it be third time lucky for Best Original Screenplay in a year when McDonagh won't win Best Director? It feels like too much of a good thing for Everything Everywhere to win Picture, Director and Original Screenplay for its directing duo, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert. If McDonagh did win here, it would do Banshees' Best Picture chances no harm...
Best Picture
The Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Almost everything everywhere points to an Everything Everywhere win - any film that has won the big ones at the Directors Guild of America (DGA), Producers Guild of America (PGA), Writers Guild of America (WGA) and Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards has won Best Picture. Indeed, the Oscar winner for Best Picture has mirrored the PGA winner 23 times since 1990. Everything Everywhere has the most Oscar nominations, 11 - but the asterisk here is that this is the only Oscars category that's a one to ten preferential ballot. The film with the most second preferences could win if the top vote is split. Now, Everything Everywhere is a film that plays better with younger Academy members - does that let All Quiet on the Western Front or The Banshees of Inisherin in for the win if they're backed by older members and the European voters? Will the importance of All Quiet on the Western Front's message amid the horror of the invasion of Ukraine mean that voters want to make a statement? Will being a remake and a shoo-in for Best International Feature Film count against it, meaning Banshees could have the edge for second preference votes? It's Everything Everywhere's to lose going into Sunday, but perhaps the biggest surprise of the night will be kept to last...
Harry Guerin
The 95th Academy Awards take place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles on Sunday night and will be broadcast on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player on Monday from 9:30pm.
