RBS 6 Nations: Ireland v Scotland

by Brendan Cole

Ireland near the end of an RBS 6 Nations campaign that will probably end rather quietly despite the likely Triple Crown presentation after the match.

Can Declan Kidney's men be happy with their Six Nations campaign? Perhaps, but the suspicion must be that the result against France will cause a certain amount of wailing and gnashing of teeth at whatever behind-closed-doors review session takes place.

Ireland are obviously victims of their own success in one sense: the only way to top a Grand Slam in 2009 was with another in 2010. Anything else was bound to come as a disappointment. In a way, that's a compliment that says it all about what Ireland have become.

What is disappointing is the general acceptance that Ireland could not have beaten France in Paris come hell or high water. And not only did they lose, they ended up going down by 23 points; and for all the world looked to have been comprehensively figured out by France. That Stade De France clash was the biggest opportunity for Ireland to really make a stride forward and it simply passed them by.

Wins over England and Wales have improved the mood since. The devil's-advocate point of view is that Ireland should probably have lost to England - with injuries and the scoreboard against them in the closing minutes - but they got out of jail thanks to dreadful play by the England lineout tail. They also had a fairly easy task to beat a Welsh side that hampered itself badly with poor decision-making and had been decimated by injuries in the pack.

England and France have prospered in the tight

The other concern is that England and France both had things go their way against the Irish scrum, while Australia did the same in November. Granted, Ireland won important scrums against the head in the Wales and England games but, realistically, they cannot expect to continue prioritising the lineout over the scrum and win regularly against top sides.

The Irish defence has also struggled relative to the superior form it showed in 2009. To date, it has simply not been able to shut down opposition teams in the same way it did a year ago.

Only against England, who played slowly and from deep, were Ireland able to prevent territory gains for long periods. Wales and France both made headway with relative ease though only France had the quality to finish. It is particularly noticeable that opposition teams have had easy success against Ireland by shifting the ball wide.

Scotland have run as hard as anyone in this tournament and Ireland will need to improve to contain them. They may not score tries, but the Scottish back row looks capable of giving them yards and momentum and they have hints of spark in some backline positions - Max Evans and sub winger Simon Danielli are both capable broken-field runners.

O'Leary and Sexton - complementary pairing

But Scotland are no world-beaters and Ireland's quality in the back division gives them a key edge. The pairing of Tomás O'Leary and Jonathan Sexton has been superb in general play with O'Leary putting in two of his best-ever displays when lining out alongside the Leinsterman in recent weeks.

Brian O'Driscoll is obviously the pick of the centres, though Nick De Luca has a record of defending effectively against him, and among that trio Ireland should have enough spark to manufacture try chances for the likes of Tommy Bowe and Keith Earls.

The final key to the game is referee Jonathan Kaplan. The South Africa was inclined to penalise Ireland for holding on when he refereed them against Australia in November and they struggled to create any momentum in attack as a consequence.

Obviously, Kaplan's interpretation will add a further slant to the breakdown dynamic and Ireland will need to be careful with their technique.

Ideally, Ireland will show that they have a very clear strategy for minimising penalties and maximising impact. A repeat of the situation that developed against Wales last week - where Ireland players on the field appeared largely uninformed about a breakdown issue that had been widely discussed in the rugby world - would hint at a deeper problem.

All told, Ireland are likely to outclass Scotland and leave Croke Park with one final reasonably happy memory.......*

Prediction: Ireland 19-12 Scotland

* The sometimes vapid daytime atmosphere at the Northside venue will not be missed by most fans but classic evening games such as Ireland v England in 2007 and last year's victory over France will always have a special place in the annals of Irish rugby and the generous decision by the GAA to open up the stadium deserves to be saluted

Ireland v Scotland in the RBS 6 Nations on Saturday, 20 March at 5.00pm:

Ireland XV: 15 Geordan Murphy, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 - Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Tomas O'Leary, 1 Cian Healy, 2 Rory Best, 3 John Hayes, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 5 Paul O'Connell, 6 Stephen Ferris, 7 David Wallace, 8 Jamie Heaslip.

Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tony Buckley, 18 Leo Cullen, 19 Shane Jennings, 20 Eoin Reddan, 21 Ronan O'Gara, 22 Robert Kearney.

Scotland XV: H Southwell (Stade Francais); S Lamont (Scarlets), N De Luca (Edinburgh), G Morrison (Glasgow), M Evans (Glasgow); D Parks (Glasgow), C Cusiter (Glasgow, capt); A Jacobsen (Edinburgh), R Ford (Edinburgh), E Murray (Northampton), J Hamilton (Edinburgh), A Kellock (Glasgow), K Brown (Glasgow), J Barclay (Glasgow), J Beattie (Glasgow).

Replacements: S Lawson (Gloucester), A Dickinson (Gloucester), R Gray (Glasgow), A MacDonald (Edinburgh), M Blair (Edinburgh), P Godman (Edinburgh), S Danielli (Ulster).