RBS 6 Nations: George Hook's Expert Analysis

by George Hook

Ireland should pick up a fifth Triple Crown in seven years on Saturday evening but they could once again find themselves relying on the class of the back division to dig them out of a hole.

That is because, despite some poor results, Scotland are a dangerous team. I described them as dark horses before the tournament and I stand by that because I think they have performed ahead of what most people expected, particularly against the Home Nations.

They are a throwback to the Scottish teams of 20 years ago and part of their improvement has been down to the fact that Andy Robinson has managed to connect with that tradition. His predecessors were not able to do that and made the mistake of trying to get them to play all singing, all dancing rugby. Having watched them for 60 years I can say Scotland have never been about that.

This Scotland team boasts a wonderful back row and a super scrum and like Italy, they benefit from the fact that they know what their strengths are. Two examples of the difficulty you can get into when you do not know that are England and Wales, who are trying to play a game that is above their capabilities.

Ireland could be turned over if they are not at the top of their game, particularly if there are a lot of scrums, and I certainly don't see myself giving a valedictory speech at half-time, when the game may well still be in the balance. In the end, I expect Ireland's class in the backline to get them over the line even if they are having a hard time up front.

Ireland have performed as expected

That will mean that Ireland have done exactly what I expected them to do from day one: lose to France and beat everybody else. By Saturday evening, they will have won nine of their last 10 Six Nations games. You can't really argue with that record.

There is still an issue with the forward pack. Declan Kidney has countered it by putting in place top class defensive and attacking systems but it is still very hard to imagine Ireland as a true top team when they don't have a scrum or a real number seven. We have a very good seven in David Wallace but he is a different kind of seven to the type of player the top teams select.

Scrum coaching is also an issue. Ireland had the best scrum coach in the world in Roly Meates and the tragedy is that he is still living in Dublin but is not involved with either Leinster or Ireland. He has been cruelly ignored by people like Michael Cheika and Eddie O'Sullivan and we have paid a price for that. It comes back to this typically Irish capacity for ignoring our own.

Technically, Meates is without par and has been for 30 years. If he had coached John Hayes early in his career, Hayes could have won 15 Lions caps. But he is not involved and the Irish scrum continues to be a major weakness.

There is a broader problem for rugby in that the conventionally built prop forward is threatened with extinction because there is an over-emphasis on athleticism. That is why I was delighted to see the Clongowes tighthead Ian Prendiville get two tries in the Leinster Senior Cup final on St Patrick's day. If you look at his shape, he is not a quintessential athlete but he is a prop forward.

What is peculiar is that Clongowes were criticised in some quarters for winning the Cup with a big pack. Winning matches by dominating up front should not be viewed with disdain at any level.

BREAKDOWN INTERPRETATION

Conspiracy is a strong word but the fact of the matter is that the impetus for the different interpretation at the breakdown has come from the Southern Hemisphere. Paddy O'Brien - referee manager with the IRB - will say there is no real change at all and in one sense he is right: the game's Laws are still the same. But emphasising a particular interpretation is important and to have it become such a big issue in the middle of the biggest tournament in Northern Hemisphere rugby is quite extraordinary.

It has had a real impact. For example, Ireland scored a try against Wales from a quick penalty taken by Tomás O'Leary. That penalty was given against Wales for failing to release Jonathan Sexton on the ground and most people would have suggested it should have gone to Wales. They were still cribbing about it when Ireland scored: instead of a Welsh clearing kick, we got an Ireland try.

The key to this interpretation is that it favours the attacking team to such an extent we are almost guaranteed to get a running game.

It has come from the Southern Hemisphere and it has done so because they have a different imperative. In Europe, we can fill grounds for our games. They are unable to do the same and as a consequence they are trying to create a game that will bring people in and put bums and seats. The problem is that this game is not rugby as we know it.