RBS 6 Nations: Brent Pope's Expert Analysis

by Brent Pope

On paper this looks like a win for Ireland but you never know with Wales and you have to remember that every game they have played this year has been tight.

But Ireland are playing at home with a more settled team while Wales have several injuries that have weakened their lineup in key areas.

Ireland's team selection did come as something something of a surprise because a lot of people were expecting Rob Kearney to come back in but that didn't happen. There were also rumours that Tony Buckley might come into the starting side or that Ronan O'Gara might be left out of the 22 but that didn't happen.

But you never know what you are going to get with Declan Kidney and he has kept us guessing again by picking an unchanged team.

Kearney may be a little bit annoyed by that because he worked so hard to get the number one spot at full-back after spending time on the wing.

Ireland - settled but on their toes

But Kidney has managed to keep his players on their toes while at the same time putting out a settled team. He might have upset that balance if he had not rewarded Geordan Murphy for his good performance at Twickenham.

Despite their injury troubles, Wales do have some combinations that have played together for a run of games out wide and we will see two good backlines.

But it looks like Ireland have the upper hand in the forwards. They should dominate out of touch and the back row of Stephen Ferris, David Wallace and Jamie Heaslip is another unit that can give them an edge.

However, the scrum issue is still there. Adam Jones is a world class tighthead, as he proved in South Africa during the summer, though he may not be helped by the rest of the changes in the pack and yet again it is a concern. The fact is that every time Ireland take the field they are likely to face a scrum that is better than theirs. It is a help that there are less scrums in the game and Ireland have been able to get around the issue.

I am not overly worried about it on this occasion because Ireland are good enough in other areas.

If Wales were to spark into life - and a player like Martyn Williams is someone who can do that - they do have some danger men.

The new number eight Gareth Delve is another one to watch. He is an under-rated player who is an impressive ball carrier and he replaces an out of form guy in Ryan Jones. Jones has not really lived up to his billing since the Lions Tour to New Zealand a couple of years ago.

Jones - did not develop after NZ tour

He was one of the stars of that tour and it was expected that he would kick on and become one of the world's best number eights but that didn't really happen for him. To me, he was always a second row playing number eight. Ironically, he had his best game for a while against France but he has been ruled out with an ankle injury.

Mike Phillips also misses out an slot in the 22 and Ireland had direct experience on how dangerous he can be last year.

But the one thing we have seen in this tournament is that any team can compete and all of Wales' games have been tight.

Even so, I think on paper Ireland are stronger and they could win by about 7-10 points. Wales will kick their goals but Ireland can get the tries and it might be something like 20-10.