RBS 6 Nations Preview: Ireland v Wales

by Brendan Cole

This should be a tight game based on results over the last few years but with Wales shorn of a number of key players, Ireland could find themselves operating in a comfort zone of sorts.

That could spell trouble for Warren Gatland's men. In fairness, they have managed to make every match a tight one but they may find that Ireland are far less inclined to allow them back in the game than England, France and Scotland were.

The key weakness is clearly in the Welsh pack. The loss of Ryan Jones, Ian Gough, Dafydd Jones, Gethin Jenkins, Alun-Wyn Jones and even Andy Powell has left them short of genuinely powerful players. This is a far weaker Welsh eight than took the field for the Slam decider last year.

In contrast, Ireland are arguably stronger. Stephen Ferris was forced out of that game in the first minute, though Denis Leamy had a stormer when he came in, while Rory Best adds a different dimension in the tight to Jerry Flannery. Donncha O'Callaghan may also continue to show the bounce in form he experienced against England after being dropped.

Wales certainly lack the physical attributes to trouble Ireland at lineout time and Ireland should be able to make it a tough day for the men in red out of touch. Expect to see the ball kept in play whenever possible.

Scrum and ping pong: a gameplan for Wales?

There are one or two concerns for Ireland. Gatland is as sharp an observer as there is in the game and there is no doubt based on Ireland's previous outings that John Hayes and the scrum will be tested. Wales have two six footers at prop and Adam Jones is exactly the type of squat and powerful tighthead who can set Wales up for a low drive and that could translate into difficulties for John Hayes over on the far side. The saving grace is that Wales field the journeyman Paul James at loosehead instead of Jenkins: Hayes should have the bulk and nous to cope.

The other concern for Ireland is on the wing and at full-back. Other teams may have missed a trick by failing to target Keith Earls. Warren Gatland and Sean Edwards will be well aware of the Munster man's talent, but will also know his tendency to have the odd nervy moment. Lee Byrne and Stephen Jones will test him. Having wobbled from time to time during his exceptional career, Geordan Murphy's form on the day will no doubt also be examined early.

Read George Hook on Ireland v Wales; Warren Gatland's fatal flaw and Brian O'Driscoll's place in the pantheon of Irish greats.

That is the guts of a gameplan for Wales: plenty of ping pong, hope to force knock ons and scrappy ball and get into the game from there.

But those are relatively minor issues and if Ireland do find themselves going badly, they have the excellence of Rob Kearney to call on.

In general play, Ireland look fitter and stronger and should be able to set a very sound platform behind the tight five for Tomás O'Leary and the back-row. Jonathan Sexton should also benefit and having been withdrawn at a key stage against England, the Leinsterman might well see this as a game in which he can make a statement.

Hook - a potential target for Ireland

With James Hook at outside centre it could be set up for the wrap around moves that are something of a specialty. The Welsh outside centre is an exceptional talent but he has not adapted his skills to the game particularly well - unlike his opposite number - and the memory of him sliding off regulation tackles against Scotland is likely to be fresh in Irish minds. Byrne's tackling is also a weakness at times and O'Driscoll's remarkable offloading talent may well be seen at its very best in this one.

Across the field, Ireland's weapons look sharper.

After last year, there are one or two subtexts to the game. Warren Galtand versus Ireland has been the issue that has been blown out of proportion with his comments last year about how the Welsh disliked Ireland the most of any nation getting another airing (Gatland showed some knowledge of Irish psychology there - we do like to be liked!).

In fairness to the Welsh coach, it seems as though he was simply trying to ensure that his own players did not show any quarter to an Irish team on the cusp of its greatest achievement. No Welsh player would have begrudged the Irish their Slam last year and Gatland had to try to make sure that did not affect their performance. In a sense, he succeeded in giving the game an edge and it almost worked, with Wales getting to within a kick of victory.

But a Lions tour to South Africa will only have strengthened the general relations and there is even less of a basis for claiming that there is animosity between the squads now (especially with Gavin Henson no longer in the mix).

Wales like to keep the ball in play and wear teams down: their tendency to finish strongly is no accident, but Ireland have the class to keep them at arm's length for long enough and it is they who should have friendly bragging rights come Saturday evening.

Prediction: Ireland 22-6 Wales

Ireland v Wales in the RBS Six Nations at Croke Park on Saturday, 13 March at 2.30pm:

Ireland XV: Geordan Murphy, Tommy Bowe, Brian O'Driscoll (capt), Gordon D'Arcy, Keith Earls, Jonathan Sexton, Tomás O'Leary, Cian Healy, Rory Best, John Hayes, Donncha O'Callaghan, Paul O'Connell, Stephen Ferris, David Wallace, Jamie Heaslip.

Replacements: Sean Cronin, Tony Buckley, Leo Cullen, Shane Jennings, Eoin Reddan, Ronan O'Gara, Rob Kearney

Wales XV: L Byrne; L Halfpenny, J Hook, J Roberts, S Williams; S Jones, R Rees; P James, M Rees, A Jones, B Davies, L Charteris, J Thomas, M Williams (capt). G Delve.

Substitutes: H Bennett, R Gill, I Gough, S Warburton, D Peel, A Bishop, T Shanklin.