RBS 6 Nations: George Hook's Expert Analysis

by George Hook

Ireland are good enough to win this match by 10 points but this Championship has been one of tight games and they possibly do not have the weapons to really outclass Wales.

In part that is because that is not the way they play or the kind of team they are: throughout the 15-month unbeaten run, Ireland won games but rarely ran away with them.

A primary reason for that is that there will be a dozen or more scrums in the match and Ireland could be under pressure in every one of those, which means they have to work twice as hard in other areas to make up for that.

It is obviously a help to John Hayes that Gethin Jenkins is not playing and to Ireland that Warren Gatland has had to make changes in all three rows of the scrum. They also have a lineout that has malfunctioned in each of their three matches so far.

What has also emerged is that this is a Welsh side that plays well when the match is lost. Even if they do get a head of steam up, James Hook and Jamie Roberts are going to struggle to get anything opposite what is possibly the best midfield defence in the Championship in the Irish 10, 12 and 13.

Stephen Jones may be able to keep the scoreboard ticking over but tries will be hard to come by for them and they simply don't defend as well as they attack. I don't think they have the forward pack to set up the special performance they need. If Ireland can do a job in the lineout and give the backrow and scrum-half space to operate in open play they have a platform for victory.

If Ireland do win we will inevitably be left looking back at the France game and wondering what might have been. It has been suggested that Ireland might have won against France with a more cautious gameplan but I don't go along with that. In my opinion, no matter what Ireland did they would have lost at the Stade de France.

France are the best in the Championship and they are almost certainly going to be Grand Slam champions in a week's time. They are content to just win a match instead of putting teams to the sword and that could have cost them against Wales.

They are still developing as a team but the experimental phase is over. Marc Lievremont is now going to mould them into a side that can win the Rugby World Cup and I think they will have every chance of doing that. France are a great bet for the next World Cup.

Wales - Warren Galtand under pressure?

For Wales, the future may be more turbulent. They may not hold on to Warren Gatland if he comes out of this Championship with a 2-3 record and no win against one of the three big teams.

A large part of the reason he is under pressure is that he has made bad decisions at important times, as he did during his tenure in charge with Ireland. For example, he picked a second rate team against Italy last year and that did not go down well in Wales because they don't like just giving away caps. He has picked several bad sides since. In particular, he got it wrong by selecting players such as Andy Powell and Colin Cooper in this year's Championship.

To me, those decisions are about his persona rather than his ability. Gatland's issues are about the man himself. He is an outstanding rugby coach but what he needs is a minder. If he had a permanent PR man to keep him in check he might be OK.

He has always shot his mouth off. He did it here in Ireland and he has done it again in Wales. He overcomes that by winning but he gives hostages to fortune which have a tendency to come back and bite him when he isn't winning.

BRIAN O'DRISCOLL'S 100th CAP

Brian O'Driscoll has matured into quite an extraordinary rugby player; certainly the finest of the professional era and certainly an all time Ireland great.

When he started for Ireland he was uncapped by Leinster but had tons of talent. In one sense, he may have been capped a little early by Ireland but I think we really saw him as a fully developed player when he went to Australia with the Lions.

The Australian centres underestimated him on that occasion but since then opposition defences have really been set up to contain him which makes his achievement all the more remarkable.

He went through a period where fame and fortune got to him. The Lions tour he captained in New Zealand was not a happy experience and he went through a phase where he didn't really know who he was - as was reflected by his hairstyle and the whole celebrity thing.

But he has come through that and winning 100 caps is a testament to his ability to adapt to the changing game and his capacity for hard work. There has never been as physical a backline player.

In terms of the all-time Ireland greats, a backline comprising Jack Kyle at out-half, Mike Gibson and Brian O'Driscoll in the centres, with Tony O'Reilly on one wing and a joust between Niall Brophy and Simon Geoghegan for the other (with Brophy just getting the nod), Colin Patterson at scrum-half and Tom Kiernan at full-back, would be some combination.