Live RBS 6 Nations: Ireland v Italy

By Brendan Cole

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The consensus is that Ireland have no chance of losing this one and, this time, the consensus looks like it has things just about exactly right.

Watch Ireland v Italy live on RTÉ Two from 1.30pm, Listen live on Saturday Sport from 2pm and follow all the latest on matchday from 9am with our live tracker on Saturday morning!

Ireland, despite rumours to the contrary, will have captain and talisman Brian O'Driscoll fit and ready for action come Saturday afternoon.

Compounding the difficult task for Italy is that while their opponents are riding high, they are in a bit of a slump: Ireland are Grand Slam champions, ranked fourth by the IRB and have a win over the World and Tri-Nations champion South Africans in their last outing in their back pocket.

In contrast, and despite a reasonable November against second string Southern Hemisphere sides, Italy look like they are in a difficult place given that they seemed on the cusp of a breakthrough Championship last season.

Italy - a missed chance in 2009?

Instead, they slumped to a demoralising opening day defeat against England - when Nick Mallett's disastrous decision to pick Mauro Bergamasco at scrum-half backfired. A comprehensive defeat to Scotland in the 'wooden spoon' play-off and a superb second half display from Ireland shut down their other chances to impress.

12 months later, and 2009 looks very much like a missed opportunity.

The major talking point from their side is, obviously, the loss of Sergio Parisse. The Stade Francais man has been a colossus in Italian blue and without Parisse, the Italian pack has lost its focal point. His excellence in the backfield - catching and returning kicks - lineout prowess, and skill down the tramlines will also be badly missed.

Shorn of Parisse, the Italian back-row of Josh Sole, Alessandro Zanni and Mauro Bergamasco simply looks outclassed, even though Ireland are missing Stephen Ferris.

How long can Gower last at out-half?

On the positive side, they have been able to select Australian born out-half Craig Gower, who had been an injury worry. Gower, a Rugby League convert who began his career as an ARL hooker, is stocky and brave but also a good runner and handler. It remains to be seen how well he will last and how fit he is, while the goal-kicking is also suspect.

Alongside him, the powerfully built Gonzalo Garcia likes to punch up the ball off a short run and will need to be corralled at inside-centre, though he is prone to the odd mad moment.

Gonzalo Canale offers a degree of class at 13 while Mirco Bergamasco is an old school galloper who can get among the opposition down the wing. Journeymen Luke McLean and Kaine Robertson complete the back-three and Ireland will not have any major concerns about containing them.

Read about what to expect at the breakdown over the coming weeks in our Six Nations blog.

The Italian scrum and lineout should also deliver solid ball and you can see Italy setting targets in midfield and looking to create tempo from there.

Irish defence is a tough nut to crack

But once the play goes beyond first phase, Italy will find Ireland a very tough nut to crack. Most of the Irish players look to make positive plays in defence these days and the talk in the lead-up to this one hints that aggressive defending - recall those intercepts last year - will once again be a key platform. Can the Italians' skills hold up? Possibly not, or not to the extent that Ireland will find themselves coming under sustained pressure.

Italy will, you suspect, be forced to kick away quite a bit of ball. Once that happens, the focus will be on Ronan O'Gara in the Ireland 10 jersey. Getting the mix right between kicking line and long kicks, hitting it up through the forwards and spreading the ball in Brian O'Driscoll's direction will be the difference between Ireland huffing and puffing to a 10 point win and really cutting loose.

O'Gara is an acknowledged master at this facet of the game though obviously, the Corkman's quality of execution will also play an important role. More good news for Ireland: O'Gara has looked very sharp for Munster of late and is in better form this season than he was at the beginning of last year's tournament.

Alongside him, scrum-half Tomás O'Leary also faces a big day with a good performance needed to quieten the few murmurs.

The scrum is the other area Ireland will be concerned about. Ireland loosehead Cian Healy has shown he can handle Martin Castrogiovanni before, though 'Castro' is another Italian player who sometimes seems to find a bit more in this tournament. Healy is certainly powerful enough and realistically, should be able to cope.

Will Ireland plan for tighthead pressure?

On Ireland's tighthead side, John Hayes is certainly expected to come under pressure from Salvatore Perugini. That may well come to pass to some extent but Hayes has coped reasonably well with Perugini before and it would be surprising if Ireland went into this clash with their eyes shut. There will - surely - be a plan for the situation and it would be a surprise if Ireland find themselves too badly hamstrung even under Romain Poite, who tends to penalise the defensive scrum.

The final complicating factor is that both of Ireland's hookers - starter Jerry Flannery and Rory Best - come into this match off the back of lengthy injury lay-offs. What chance of an embarrassing - for Irish rugby - move to uncontested scrums at some point?

Ireland's injuries - there are five players who might have started this one on the sidelines in Denis Leamy, Luke Fitzgerald, Stephen Ferris, Donncha O'Callaghan and Jonathan Sexton - are obviously negatives but in each case, the replacement player seems to slot in very nicely.

Kevin McLaughlin is not quite as dynamic an athlete as Ferris but he hits hard and is always in the right place while Andrew Trimble's elevation could yet turn out to be one of those accidental master-strokes.

When you look at the XV, Ireland don't look like a team down at least three nailed on starters.

Blindside an avenue for opposition teams?

It will be of interest to see how much use Italy make of the blindside. Ireland A certainly allowed the England Saxons yardage and points down it and with Wales and France both sides that can probe down it, it may become a theme this year as opposition coaches try to find the weak spots in coach Les Kiss's defensive scheme.

But Ireland will put on plenty of pressure of their own and Italy will find Croke Park a challenging place to be: Kidney's teams create a tough environment for the opposition and rarely allow them to get comfortable.

Italian scrum-half Tito Tibaldi's technique and calm will be tested at least as much as O'Leary's and Rob Kearney's accuracy with the boot and excellence in the air - albeit that his catching dipped a touch over Christmas - also poses a serious challenge. If Italy are squeezed at the ruck and unable to cope in the ping pong, it will be a very tough day.

In the trenches, Paul O'Connell and co will be primed to deal with the usual 'physical battle' - something for which Leo Cullen looks tailor made - and it will be a surprise if they come off the field having won anything less than parity. Ireland are the class team in this one, the team packed with Heineken Cup winners.

That new slant at the breakdown could also see Italy struggle to frustrate Ireland as they have in previous years and if Kidney's men do manage to start taking the ball through phases, they could run up a good score.

Obviously, the focus will then switch to Italy and Kidney will be hoping for selection dilemmas rather than more injury worries come Monday morning - with rumours that Brian O'Driscoll might not start set to prove completely without foundation.

Prediction: Ireland 35-7 Italy

Ireland v Italy, Saturday 6 February, Croke Park (2.30pm):

Ireland: 15-Rob Kearney, 14-Tommy Bowe, 13-Brian O'Driscoll (captain), 12-Gordon D'Arcy, 11-Andrew Trimble, 10-Ronan O'Gara, 9-Tomas O'Leary; 8-Jamie Heaslip, 7-David Wallace, 6-Kevin McLaughlin, 5-Paul O'Connell, 4-Leo Cullen, 3-John Hayes, 2-Jerry Flannery, 1-Cian Healy.

Replacements: 16-Rory Best, 17-Tom Court, 18-Donnacha Ryan, 19-Sean O'Brien, 20-Eoin Reddan, 21-Paddy Wallace, 22-Keith Earls.

Italy: 15-Luke McLean, 14-Kaine Robertson, 13-Gonzalo Canale, 12-Gonzalo Garcia, 11-Mirco Bergamasco, 10-Craig Gower, 9-Tito Tebaldi; 8-Alessandro Zanni, 7-Mauro Bergamasco, 6-Josh Sole, 5-Quintin Geldenhuys, 4-Carlo Antonio Del Fava, 3-Martin Castrogiovanni, 2-Leonardo Ghiraldini (captain) 1-Salvatore Perugini.

Replacements: 16-Fabio Ongaro, 17-Matias Aguero, 18-Marco Bortolami, 19-Paul Derbyshire, 20-Simon Picone, 21-Riccardo Bocchino, 22-Andrea Masi.

Referee: Romain Poite (France)
Touch judges: Christophe Berdos & Jerome Garces (France)
TMO: Geoff Warren (England)