George Hook's RBS 6 Nations preview

by George Hook

There is no chance Ireland will lose against Italy on Saturday but there is a very large possibility that they could be embarrassed in certain areas of the pitch. I think they will almost certainly be embarrassed in the scrum and I think they will find it difficult up front where the Italians are going to be obdurate for 30-40 minutes.

In the end, the Italians' well known failings such as poor defending will let them down and it has to be said that no team in the world could afford to lose somebody of Sergio Parisse's class and for Italy in particular it is a disastrous blow. He has been hugely instrumental in what they have done over the last number of years and it will be very interesting to see what Nick Mallett can achieve without him. The short answer is 'probably not a lot'.

The other problem for Mallett is that Italian teams have not yet been brought into the Magners League, despite the stated goals of the game's administrators in relation to developing the weaker nations.

In reality, and although Declan Kidney and Brian O'Driscoll will talk about taking one match at the time, this one is all about the following week. Kidney will genuinely be trying to keep his players focussed on the Italy game but what I will be looking for on Saturday is some indication as to how we are going to cope with the French, because the chance of repeat Grand Slam stands or falls on the result in Paris.

Irish scrum - can it cope in Paris?

Obviously, a central concern is the Irish scrum and I have always been surprised at just how 'unworried' Irish supporters are about it. Stephen Jones of the Sunday Times and I rarely have anything in common but when he said that a team with the worst scrum in the world could not win a Grand Slam, I must admit I felt a certain empathy for that.

The main reason Ireland and Munster have coped in the past is the refereeing. Referees by and large have always refereed the weaker team instead of the stronger team. However, that does not always happen and the reason there was so much trouble between Paul O'Connell and Romain Poite at the Munster v Northampton match is that Poite refereed the stronger team. When the weaker team - Munster in this case - attempted to equalise things at the scrum they were penalised and the stronger team was rewarded.

Poite is the referee on Saturday and Ireland are unbelievably lucky that he is French and therefore cannot referee the match between Ireland and France, for which Wayne Barnes will be in charge.

But I still think we are likely to lose one match and that if we do it will be the match in Paris.

People have been very critical of Marc Lievremont and his selections during his time as France coach but he has succeeded in going to New Zealand and winning and also beat South Africa in November. Their scrum is astonishingly good and their physical presence is ferocious.

French half-back pair a weakness

Our best chance of winning is based on their half-back selection where the coach has gone for Morgan Parra and Francois Trinh-Duc. Trinh-Duc cannot run a rugby match in the way that Ronan O'Gara can and our best chance is to hope that France will not be able to convert their superiority into points: that gives us the chance of winnng with a smash and grab raid.

Looking at Ireland's fly-half selection, I always thought Declan Kidney would pick O'Gara ahead of Jonathan Sexton on the basis that the fly-half for Italy had to be the man you would start in France. Paris has been a graveyard for us since the second world war so why would you go there with a relatively inexperienced fly-half instead of O'Gara, who is one of the great 10s in world rugby and a man who is really getting his game back?

Now, I think it is reasonable to assume that Kidney will continue with O'Gara in Paris regardless of what happens with Sexton's injury and if they win there I would not expect too many changes for the rest of the competition.

England will also be difficult to beat and I think they will get a win against Wales on Saturday. They were able to get within a point of us at Croke Park last year and I don't think there is any reason to be comfortable thinking that we will win at Twickenham.

English camp confident ahead of campaign

However, you have to say that what is extraordinary is that rather than being talked up by the English media, England are being talked up by their own coaches and players even though they have only won four out of 14 matches under Martin Johnson.

If England were to lose against Wales, there will be a huge focus on the coaching staff as a whole. I don't think Johnson will be sacked but the subsidiary coaches would come under enormous pressure.

I actually think Scotland are going to be the surprise package of this tournament - although I still think Ireland will beat them and also get a win against Wales. It is the away games, as in every even numbered year, that present the main difficulty.

By the end of the tournament, I think the order will be: France, Ireland, England, Scotland, Wales, Italy.