Brent Pope's RBS 6 Nations Preview

by Brent Pope

Though it came as a surprise to a lot of people, by picking Ronan O'Gara, Ireland may have ended up with the out-half they would have had anyway.

That is because, although I was fully in favour of the move to bring Jonathan Sexton in to the team in November, I actually had a slight suspicion that Ronan O'Gara would get the starting jersey this time around. Obviously, the injury has taken a decision from Declan Kidney out of the equation and we will never know how the selection might have gone.

But the situation had changed since November. At that time, Sexton was the form out-half and the South Africa game gave the Irish coaches a chance to look at him with the future - particularly the World Cup - in mind. In that sense, the selection worked and we now know that Ireland have two out-halves who can play at the highest level.

But I think the injury Sexton got against South Africa, which kept him out of the game for six weeks, set him back a little bit and this time, he might just have lacked a touch of match fitness. Watching him play with Leinster over the last few weeks, he hasn't been quite as sharp. Perhaps this slight injury that has just been revealed played a role in that.

At inside centre, I'm not surprised that Gordon D'Arcy is back as the first choice man. He was one of the best players in Europe a couple of years ago before he had some injury problems and he has been superb for Leinster over December and January.

Wing picks give Ireland physical strength

On the wing, it looked like a battle between Keith Earls and Shane Horgan and the Andrew Trimble selection is a slight surprise. But Trimble has bounced back well after a difficult period a couple of years ago and is playing most of his rugby on the wing for Ulster. He and Tommy Bowe are both big, strong men and will give Ireland a bit of physicality.

Looking at scrum-half, I am a bit surprised that - going on the A selection - Isaac Boss finds himself the fourth man in the pecking order as he has had a pretty good season for Ulster and he could push himself up a bit over the next couple of months.

In the back-row, Ireland are very strong with a first choice trio of David Wallace, Jamie Heaslip and Stephen Ferris, who would all be in the top two or three in the world in their positions. With Ferris out the strength in depth is also there and you have Shane Jennings, Sean O'Brien and now Kevin McLaughlin all in the running behind the starters. McLaughlin has had an excellent season for Leinster.

The scrum is the main area of concern. Northampton were able to put pressure on John Hayes against Munster and the French will certainly view the tighthead side as an area they can target. Ireland have more options at loosehead where Marcus Horan is coming back and Cian Healy is a good young player.

Ireland may find themselves targetted at tighthead

Can Ireland cope with it? Well, the tighthead prop is the strongman of the scrum and it is difficult to make a plan for a situation where your first choice player is getting older and perhaps not up to a full 80 minutes and there is no one to replace him with. Mike Ross is one player who may have the physical size at close to 20 stone but he is not getting the games for Leinster and isn't going to be match sharp so it is hard to see him featuring in the starting team.

So, how will Ireland fare over the Championship? The schedule is tough but at least the fact that Italy come first means it gives Declan Kidney a chance to assess the form of the players and given the couple of injuries Ireland have suffered it has worked out quite well.

But it gets much more difficult after that and is a harder slate of matches than last year with both France and England away this time. Winning in Paris in particular will be very difficult. Ireland won there in 2000 for the first time in 28 years when Brian O'Driscoll scored his three tries, but they haven't managed to do it again since. Coming in the second week, that match will obviously dictate how the Championship really sets up as Italy and Scotland are bankers for Ireland.

For France, scrum-half and out-half are the worrying areas. Lievremont has gone for Francois Trinh-Duc again and as a player he is simply not world class. Man for man, Ireland match up well across most of the field and have the edge in a few positions.

But the French props and hooker, backed up by a couple of big second rows - Pascal Pape and Lionel Nallet - make them very tough in the tight five. They will be tough in Paris but they will not be unbeatable.

England may prove most difficult opponent

I actually think England at Twickenham could be the trickiest game Ireland face. It is never easy there no matter what side they field and they are getting a few players back from injury. Ireland will set their sights winning the Championship and hope to keep in with a shot at the Grand Slam after that second match.

Basically, whoever wins that match in Paris will obviously have a chance to do the Slam and if Ireland can do it they will have that momentum and if they can avoid any more injuries - if they lose Brian O'Driscoll, Paul O'Connell or David Wallace for example - Ireland will have huge confidence.

But my hunch is that if Ireland win in Paris they may lose in Twickenham whereas if they are beaten in Paris they may well beat England.

I definitely think France will lose a game somewhere along the line and that could add up to a Championship for Ireland.