Conor O'Shea's RBS 6 Nations preview

by Conor O'Shea

We have never had it so good. Last year going into the Championship, Leinster were not playing with a huge amount of confidence and had struggled to get out of their Heineken Cup group, Ulster were apparently in continued decline while Munster, as ever, were the rock on which we would build our team. Given that background and a pretty average Autumn 2008 series, only the most green tinted of supporters could have imagined what was about to unfold.

Not only did we win our first Grand Slam for 61 years, we swept every competition that came our way: Leinster won the Heineken, Munster the Magners, the A team the Churchill Cup and we hit the 2009/10 season masters of all we surveyed.

The Autumn Internationals continued the trend when we defeated South Africa, the reigning world champions. With Leinster and Munster through in Europe, Ulster showing real signs of home grown revival and now Connacht joining the party by qualifying as top seed in the Amlin Challenge Cup, we couldn't be starting the 2010 RBS 6 Nations in much ruder health.

I say this every year but I never lose the sense of excitement and anticipation heading into the Six Nations and as the above indicates, never have we gone in with such a sense of realistic expectation. Most countries will be hoping and praying for success: Ireland can go into this knowing that if they perform to their best that they can be champions again.

Paris and London - two difficult away games

Granted, this is the year that we travel to both Paris and London and they are two matches that will be incredibly difficult no matter how well we play. Complicating matters is that by the time we face France they could well be on the rebound from their usual opening round calamity: they have to go to play Scotland in Murrayfield on a Sunday and it is a very tricky fixture for them.

England have their strongest squad for a long time. You just have to look at the Heineken Cup games of Leinster and Munster against London Irish and Northampton to get a preview of the intensity and physicality this match will have.

So, even though we go in on a high and with relatively few injuries - only Luke Fitzgerald and Denis Leamy are ruled out - this is a difficult year.

If we play to our best my prediction is an Ireland Championship but no repeat of the Grand Slam of last year. We will win our three home games but one of the two away games may prove too much. The margins between success and failure are always so small: think of the final Stephen Jones/Ronan O'Gara Grand Slam drama in Cardiff last March. No doubt we'll be in for a few roller coaster rides over the next few weeks.

We will know more of both Wales and England after we see them battle it out in Twickenham. It is hard to know which France we will meet as they are capable of going from the sublime to the ridiculous in a week so the France we see in Murrayfield will probably be nothing like the one we play in Paris.

Italy set to struggle without Sergio Parisse

But Italy are up first. You have to feel sorry for them this season. Shorn of the great Sergio Parrisse, they will still compete like they did in the Autumn and have done now for a decade in the Six Nations. No doubt we will be talking about our scrum after the match because we will, as ever, struggle in that aspect: who doesn't against Italy? Don't expect a nice match. They will make a mess of the breakdown, and they will kick and chase and scrum and maul.

In the end, the odd bit of quick ball and a bit of sparkle from one of the Irish backs, or even Jamie Heaslip or Stephen Ferris, should be enough.

But the real Six Nations will begin for us after next week. However, the Italian game will have a bearing on the team selection. In terms of game time people like Rory Best will get more rugby under their belt, the 40 minutes for Ireland A in their defeat to the England Saxons was a strong performance from him and with Flannery out a quicker than expected return for the Ulster captain is on the cards.

Elsewhere, the team selection doesn't really look set to yield many more surprises. Gordon D'Arcy seems to be ahead of Paddy Wallace if only judging by the latter's selection for the A team. I expect to see Jonathan Sexton ahead of Ronan O'Gara and Keith Earls ahead of the rejuvenated pairing of Andrew Trimble and Shane Horgan and I can't see Marcus Horan having done enough to oust Cain Healy at loosehead.

Ireland can reach next level

Otherwise, let's hope we will be talking about the rugby and not focussing too much on the rules issues at the breakdown and the incessant aerial ping pong that has made some games so boring to watch. I want to see this team fulfil its potential and go to the next level, the level it aspires to.

It could be another Grand Slam year but, as I said, my money would be on an Ireland Championship that includes a close defeat in either Paris or London.

I hope I am wrong....