RBS 6 Nations: Scotland v Italy

by Brendan Cole

This clash of Italy's occasionally directionless muscle and aggression and Scotland's ability to produce the odd frenetic burst is likely to be the RBS 6 Nations Wooden Spoon decider.

It could also yet come to be seen as the match in which Italy finally pass Scotland out in the mental rankings of the majority of rugby supporters - and though it lacks the box office appeal of this weekend's two other games, it is one the purists will take a keen interest in as it will answer the question as to how good Italy actually are better than any other fixture in this tournament. In truth, the same goes for Scotland.

With Nigel Owens on whistling duty, it could even end up being quite entertaining.

Scotland come in to the game on the back of the by now traditional good performance against the French but with a serious pasting from Wales in the formbook just prior.

Italy have also had a poor Championship so far. Deserted by Lady Luck in their opening match against England - albeit that they were not helped by head coach Nick Mallet's descision to stick with his Mauro Bergamasco at scrum-half experiment past the five minute mark - they troubled Ireland for a good hour before leaking tries late in the game for a wide margin defeat.

In terms of the quality of their general play, however, Italy have a clear edge - and they also have the advantage of fielding the game's outstanding forward in Sergio Parisse, with Bergamasco, a superb breakdown operator, backing him up.

Arguably, that 'general play' edge ends around 10 yards to the side of either ruck with Scotland's Evans brothers Max and Thom looking a cut above the usual. Such is the power of the Italian pack though, that the supply of usable ball may well be very limited for them.

Mike Blair is another that can exert an influence. A far superior half-back to opposite number Paul Griffen - a very weak tackler against Ireland - though the Italian back-row may be able to limit his influence.

Much has been made of the return of Euan Murray to the Scottish front row and along with Allan Jacobsen, it is a solid looking combination. It is, however, too much to expect a prop to reverse a team's form in the manner some seem to expect him to do.

Scotland have home advantage but with Italy underdogs that could even end up working against them.

Overall, the decisive factor should be the Italian pack's ability to get their side on to the front foot, and their capacity to weather Scotland's haphazard rises in tempo.

Low scoring, with Italy to win by a try.

Scotland XV: Hugo Southwell (Edinburgh), Simon Danielli (Ulster), Max Evans (Glasgow), Graeme Morrison (Glasgow), Thom Evans (Glasgow), Phil Godman (Edinburgh), Mike Blair (Edinburgh, capt), Allan Jacobsen (Edinburgh), Ross Ford (Edinburgh), Euan Murray (Northampton Saints), Jason White (Sale Sharks), Alastair Kellock (Glasgow), Alasdair Strokosch (Gloucester), Simon Taylor (Stade Francais), John Barclay (Glasgow).
Replacements: Dougie Hall (Glasgow), Alasdair Dickinson (Gloucester), Kelly Brown (Glasgow), Scott Gray (Northampton Saints), Chris Cusiter (Perpignan), Chris Paterson (Edinburgh), Nick De Luca (Edinburgh).

Italy XV: Marcato (Benetton Treviso); Mirco Bergamasco (Stade Francais), Canale (Clermont-Aubergne), Garcia (Calvisano), Pratichetti (Calvisano); McLean (Calvisano) Griffen (Calvisano); Perugini (Stade Toulousain), Ghiraldini (Calvisano), Castrogiovanni (Leicester Tigers), Dellape (Toulon), Bortolami (Gloucester), Zanni (Calvisano), Mauro Bergamasco (Stade Francais), Parisse (Stade Francais).

Replacements: Ongaro (Saracens), Nieto (Gloucester), del Fava (Ulster), Canavosio (Viadana), Sole (Viadana), Bacchetti (Rovigo), Rubini (Cariparma).

Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Touch judges: George Clancy (Ireland), Romain Poite (France)
TMO: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)