RBS 6 Nations Analysis: Ireland v Wales

by Kurt McQuilkin

With all three provinces that have players in the squad on a high, the 'feel good factor' in the Ireland camp should not be underestimated ahead of the Wales game.

For Declan Kidney and his coaching staff, the goal is to ensure that they channel this enthusiasm and confidence into the offensive and defensive game-plans developed for this crucial first encounter.

The new Les Kiss / Mark Tainton attacking coach combination is interesting and I am particularly looking forward to seeing Kiss’s transition from purely being the defence coach to coaching defence and attack at the same time.

With all of his experience and knowledge of defensive systems behind Kiss I think his switch to a dual role is a master stroke by Kidney.

It is quite a natural transition. As a defence coach you always know that no matter how good your system is, it always has a weakness. You are acutely aware of the attacking lines and set-ups that can make your system creak or even be breached.

How will Ireland approach the Wales game?

The first thing to recognise is that using your lateral attack from the get go against Wales only brings their blistering linespeed into the game prematurely, which gives them the opportunity to make big impact hits behind the Irish gainline.

That means the likes of Sam Warburton and others are moving forward into the breakdown situations rather than retreating, which creates turnovers and more pressure at the next phase.

The first objective for the Irish attack is to sit the Welsh defence down. To do that, I expect to see Ireland mix up their attacking targets around the ruck with the carriers attacking the inside shoulders of the Welsh defenders.

Those carriers should have good support from trailing options and effective decoy running. Look out also for short passes between between the scrum-half and different forwards. The objective is to force the defender to plant his feet, as that makes his team-mates outside 'look in' which will immediately reduces the Welsh linespeed.

Speeding up the ball presentation will be a massive focus for Ireland as it is the key to creating a high tempo. It may take multiple phases to achieve but Ireland must stay patient.

If they execute properly, it will open up the opportunities out wide for the likes of Tommy Bowe.

Kidney's men must defend better than in RWC clash

Ireland must also look at their own defence after conceding three tries in the quarter-final. When Wales have the ball, the first up tackles must be brutal, punishing and most of all repetitive. As Ireland found out in Wellington, if you get your angles and tackle selection wrong against the likes of Jonathan Davies and Jamie Roberts, you run the risk of giving up a "soak", or missing the tackle entirely.

The chop tackle can be used as a defensive weapon early on to win that battle of the gainline and consistently stop the Welsh ball carriers dead in the contact zone.

That will eventually force Wales to kick for territory and it is then up to the players in the third line of the defensive formation to take away the 15-metre channels on the wings and force them to kick into central areas of the pitch. That should create Irish counter attacking options.

I still believe that the best way to stop the Welsh attack at source is to target Mike Phillips at scrum-half. However, in order to do that you must have the confidence to attack one of his strengths: his breaking game around the ruck.

You must show him the corridor ‘two off’ from the ruck and then make sure that your defender in that position focuses totally on shutting down his space and time. That player needs to attack the upper body, locking off any offload options while alongside, his team-mates get into the passing lanes to rough up any prospective support runners.

If Ireland can execute properly in attack and defence, they are good enough to win this game.

On the selection front, Brian O’Driscoll will be hugely missed for his world class skill set and leadership. Keith Earls is a predictable replacement and he deserves a decent run in the jersey but you would like to think that the likes of Eoin O’Malley and Darren Cave, until he got injured, were considered at recent selection meetings.

Murray a match for Phillips physicality

The selection of Murray at scrum-half is another predictable one with Kidney trying to match up his physicality with that of Phillips. Murray has gained more valuable experience in the Rabo Pro12 and Heineken Cup since their last meeting in Wellington and it is a battle I will be watch with great interest.

Eoin Reddan’s provincial combination with Sexton would have been a factor in his favour but his natural game does give you a genuine impact player when he is introduced off the bench.

With Andrew Trimble on the wing Ireland have a physical attacker who can also test the Welsh defensive formation with his trail running off first and second reciever from phase attacking situations.

Simon Zebo and Luke Fitzgerald, if he makes it back from injury, definitely have that bit of "X-Factor" and should be watched very closely if they make it into the team over the coming weeks.

Having watched Peter O’Mahony’s form for Munster of late, he looks a great prospect who adds to Ireland’s riches in the backrow.

Kurt McQuilkin won five caps for Ireland in 1996/97 and is a former Leinster defence coach, winning the Heineken Cup with the province in 2009.