RWC Preview: New Zealand v France

by Brendan Cole

After sauntering through their pool, New Zealand will either end a barely believable sequence of Rugby World Cup failure over the next three games or end this RWC - as the last four All Black teams have done -and head home empty handed. Doing so would initiate a fifth bout of self doubt, parliamentary inquisition and national depression in New Zealand.

Ireland considered themselves under pressure at this tournament, but compared to the level of expectation that this team will finally bring home a second Webb Ellis trophy to add to the one lifted by David Kirk in 1987 in New Zealand, Eddie O'Sullivan and his men had it easy. To their credit, this New Zealand squad has worn the pressure lightly, staying relaxed and engaging well with the media and the public.

France, meanwhile, need to overcome a horrific run of defeats against this particular bunch of All Blacks, and also turn around form slump that saw them lose to Argentina and struggle to get past an Irish side playing at a woeful level in Pool D.

New Zealand walloped France in a November Test series, winning the first match in particularly impressive style, and in no match since RWC 2003  have France looked remotely capable of matching New Zealand’s power up front, or their accuracy, pace and intelligence in behind.

In their favour is the memory of a 1999 semi-final in which France defied logic and tore apart a seemingly invulnerable All Black team, winning 43-31 thanks to a breathtaking half hour’s rugby. New Zealand cracked when seemingly home and hosed on that occasion and the main hope of Bernard Laporte and his coaching staff would seem to be that at some stage in this game, New Zealand will have their habitual four yearly wobble. They seem to have constructed a gameplan with a view to creating the conditions for this to happen.

Aside from the 1999 match, the model of Australia, one of the few teams to have beaten the All Blacks in recent years, has also been cited by France in the run-up to this weekend. Basically, by keeping it tight for the first fifty minutes, France hope to force New Zealand into their shell and then snatch victory from there, possibly with some expansive play of their own. Frederic Michalak and Clement Poitrenaud, left out of the XV, could make entrances from the bench if New Zealand can be put on the back foot. 

But to start France have selected two big kickers in Lionel Beauxis and Damien Traille at out-half and full-back; an attempt to effectively lengthen the pitch and make things that bit harder for the best counter attacking back three in world rugby. While it may not stop New Zealand, it may just stifle their scoring rate sufficiently to keep France in the game.

Beauxis also brings an ability to kick long penalties, which may help France keep in touch, and is a superior defender to Michalak. After doing a demolition job on Ireland through the light and agile Julien Bonnaire and Thierry Dusautoir in the lineout, attacking New Zealand out of touch is another area in which they can realistically hope for some success, especially with Fabien Pelous back in harness at lock in place of the ineffective Sebastien Chabal.

For New Zealand, the key strengths are at out-half, in the back row and in the back three. At 10, Daniel Carter has been fallible on several occasions in the last year or so, and has not played a genuine pressure game in this tournament so far. France may be hopeful of getting a few poor moments out of him, but the chances are that as a big game player he will step up to the mark and some in a huge game for him personally.

But the Rickie McCaw, Jerry Collins and Rodney So'oialo back row unit looks far superior to Serge Betsen/Julien Bonnaire/Thierry Dusautoir in all aspects but the aforementioned lineout, and the back three of Sitiveni Sivivatu, Joe Rokocoko and Leon McDonald and Mils Muliaina at outside centre would appear to be impossible to bottle up for any more than twenty minutes.

France, meanwhile, struggled for cutting edge against Ireland, a match during which they made no linebreaks, and against Argentina. Even if they can slow New Zealand down, it is hard to see where the scores will come from. Ultimately, although rugby matches between the great nations always have the potential for a shaking up of the old order to take place, it should be the hosts heading home empty handed after this one. 

New Zealand: 1 Tony Woodcock 2 Anton Oliver 3 Carl Hayman 4 Keith Robinson 5 Ali Williams 6 Jerry Collins 7 Richie McCaw (c) 8 Rodney So'oialo 9 Byron Kelleher 10 Dan Carter 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu 12 Luke McAlister 13 Mils Muliaina 14 Joe Rokocoko 15 Leon MacDonald

Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu 17 Neemia Tialata 18 Chris Jack 19 Chris Masoe 20 Brendon Leonard 21 Nick Evans 22 Isaia Toeava

France: 1 Olivier Milloud 2 Raphaël Ibanez (c) 3 Pieter de Villiers 4 Fabien Pelous 5 Jérôme Thion 6 Serge Betsen 7 Thierry Dusautoir 8 Julien Bonnaire 9 Jean-Baptiste Elissalde 10 Lionel Beauxis 11 Cédric Heymans 12 Yannick Jauzion 13 David Marty 14 Vincent Clerc 15 Damien Traille

Replacements: 16 Dimitri Szarzewski 17 Jean-Baptiste Poux 18 Sébastien Chabal 19 Imanol Harinordoquy 20 Frédéric Michalak 21 Christophe Dominici 22 Clément Poitrenaud