South Africa v British & Irish Lions

by Brendan Cole

Both sides are greatly weakened for the third Test but the Lions' losses look more damaging and they will be hard pushed to avoid the whitewash.

Of greatest concern for the Lions is that their two most successful areas - the centre and the front row - are the most weakened.

No side would find it easy to sustain the loss of Adam Jones, Gethin Jenkins, Jamie Roberts and, particularly, the peerless Brian O'Driscoll.

After a long tour, the Lions are particularly ill-equipped to do so.

It is also a concern that areas of weakness that were obvious in the second Test have also been left unchanged - principally the lineout and the ruck area.

Follow the Lions with our matchtracker from 1.30pm

The harshest call is arguably at hooker, where Lee Mears continues to pay the price for the scrummaging issues of the first Test despite Matthew Rees' costly errors at the lineout last week. Mears is not even in the squad with Scotland's Ross Ford continuing on the bench.

Unlike his England colleague, Phil Vickery gets a chance at redemption at tighthead despite being the obvious weakness - leaving aside the refereeing issues - in that match.

The Tendai 'Beast' Mtawrirara/Vickery rematch will, at least, make for a diverting subplot with this week's referee Stuart Dickinson set to get the final say on whether the first Test demolition was achieved legitimately or not.

Fitzgerald left out of Test 22

On the wing, Luke Fitzgerald is also entirely omitted from the squad with a 5-2 backs/forwards split on the bench.

Tommy Bowe's move to the centre means that Fitzgerald has effectively been demoted two places. Ugo Monye and Shane Williams are the men who benefit.

In fact, looking across the changes cynical observers will find it easy to spot that there is a large number of both Wasps and Welsh players coming into this XV with five in total: Vickery, Riki Flutey, Joe Worsley, Shane Williams and Martyn Williams.

Some of those are down to injury, but the trend is obvious across a number of the decisions.

Gordon D'Arcy is left kicking his heels despite his good form and substantial international experience at centre.

It is good to see John Hayes making a Lions Test squad and 'the Bull' will hopefully make it onto the field at some point. If Vickery struggles again, he may be seen sooner rather than later.

All told, the Irish connection is reduced to three in the first XV - with Rob Kearney, Jamie Heaslip and captain Paul O'Connell keeping their places - and two, Hayes and David Wallace, on the bench. That's less than the four-strong Wasps contingent (albeit Flutey is on the way to France next season).

South Africa also make significant changes and, albeit for different reasons, there are non-playing reasons for certain selections.

South Africans even stronger at half-back

The core of the team is, if anything, even stronger with Ruan Pienaar dropping out for Morne Steyn at out-half. Fourie Du Preez and Steyn are clearly the best half-back pairing the Lions have faced and they may need more heroics from Rob Kearney to cope with the superb kicking game.

The addition of Jaque Fourie strengthens the centre and Bowe will have to handle his penetraton, while Zane Kirchner will hope to show more attacking flair than he managed in the rain-affected Emerging Springboks game.

The loss of wings Brian Habana and JP Pietersen will obviously impact on the Boks' ability to score from the set play tries that have been so vital for them to date.

In the pack, the leaders are still there in each row with John Smit, Victor Matfield and Juan Smith all set to start for the third time.

The livewire flanker Heinrich Brussow will be a significant challenge to the Lions' ball-retention and energy and some in South Africa expect him to improve on Schalk Burger.

That said, Burger successfully shut down the midfield last week and the Lions may have slightly more space there this time.

Weakened Lions may struggle at all phases

All told, this is a weakened Lions side that may struggle at scrum, lineout and in the ruck. In Morne Steyn and Du Preez, the Boks probably have the trump cards that can make the most of any advantages won in those areas.

If the Lions are to win, they will need huge displays from Andrew Sheridan, Simon Shaw and O'Connell. On the back of that, the Lions will hope to put together the classic high-octane, all-action Welsh performance, led by Martyn Williams and half-back pair Stephen Jones and Mike Phillips.

The cobbled-together back division will have to gel with remarkable speed and, in truth, this is a XV that takes the field on a wing and a prayer. It is frustrating that a better team could probably have been selected.

Hard to see anything but a solid, series-whitewash from the Boks.

South Africa v The Lions, Saturday, 2pm

South Africa: 15-Z Kirchner, 14-O Ndungane, 13-J Fourie, 12-W Olivier, 11- J Nokwe; 10-M Steyn, 9-F du Preez); 1-T Mtawarira, 2-C Ralepelle, 3-J Smit, 4-J Muller, 5-V Matfield, 6-H Brussow, 7-J Smith, 8-R Kankowski

Replacements: 16-B du Plessis, 17-G Steenkamp, 18-D Carstens, 19-S Sykes, 20-P Spies, 21-R Pienaar, 22-F Steyn.

Lions: 15-Rob Kearney, 14-Ugo Monye, 13-Tommy Bowe, 12-Riki Flutey, 11-Shane Williams, 10-Stephen Jones, 9-Mike Phillips, 8-Jamie Heaslip, 7-Martyn Williams, 6-Joe Worsley, 5-Paul O'Connell (captain), 4-Simon Shaw, 3-Phil Vickery, 2-Matthew Rees, 1-Andrew Sheridan.

Replacements: 16-Ross Ford, 17-John Hayes, 18-Alun-Wyn Jones, 19-David Wallace, 20-Tom Croft, 21-Harry Ellis, 22-James Hook.