Heineken Cup Final: Leinster v Northampton

by Brendan Cole

Leinster have already beaten the best side in England and the best side in France – but that does not mean lifting the Heineken Cup for a second time will be easy.

Leinster have already beaten the best side in England and the best side in France – but that does not mean lifting the Heineken Cup for a second time will be easy.

But there is no doubt that slipping up against Northampton would be a bitter pill to swallow for Leinster at this stage. This has been a stellar season – the best by an Irish province since Munster in 2005/2006.

Leinster are rightly seen as strong favourites.

Partly, that is because the draw has been very kind to Saints so far. They got out of a relatively easy group, before beating a limited Ulster and a dowdy Perpignan in the quarter and semi-final respectively. This is by far their toughest match yet in this competition.

They have already been knocked out of the Aviva Premiership playoffs by Leicester and, like more than a few English clubs have done in the past, they may be about find that May can be very unforgiving even after a good quality season.

Leinster have had a much harder route, getting out of a tough group and then beating Top 14 leaders Toulouse in the semi and Aviva Premiership leaders and finalists Leicester in the quarter.

But the form book is only parrt of the story and Northampton obviously have some admirable qualities, not least that they make a point of being difficult to play against.

Saints' pack: Tough to play against

The forward pack is aggressive and hard-working and Leinster can expect an unpleasant afternoon up front. Dylan Hartley is not the only player capable of riling his opponents.

But the two props and second row Courtney Lawes are the real cornerstones and the men Leinster must keep a lid on.

Looshead Soane Tonga'uiha is a European Player of the Year nominee who has that Tony Buckley-like ability to make opponents look like mini-mes. He can scrummage too.

On the other side is the equally impressive Brian Mujati, who has been a star in the knockout games. A bit like Rodrigo Roncero at his best, he is always involved and makes plays across the field.

But the real star man is second row Lawes. Simply one of the best young players around in any position, he rucks hard, impacts the game constantly and is guaranteed to have a huge tackle count by the end of this final.

Lawes and Mujati in particular will make it difficult for Leinster to pull off their usual trick of simply outworking opponents into submission and at Cup final pace, the sheer efficiency of Leinster’s patterns might only become a factor in the final 30 minutes.

Even so, based on the formguide to date, Leinster will fancy Mike Ross, Richardt Strauss and Cian Healy to get on top in the scrum. But it is not clear cut, and with Romain Poite on the whistle, there will almost certainly be back and forth in the battle over the 80 minutes.

But Leinster have a huge trump card in the back-row. Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip (along with Isa Nacewa) are also European Player of the Year nominees and either man would get on any teamsheet in the continent right now.

They have more punch, pace and close-in handling ability than any of the Saints’ carriers.

Leinster - advantages up front

Leinster also have the dynamism of Healty and Strauss, Leo Cullen’s ability to make smart calls at lineout time – helped by an extra jumper in Kevin McLaughlin – and all told, the pack is well capable of providing a good platform.

And the scrum edge and back-row superiority should get them on top in what will be an enthralling battle up front.

In behind, Leinster have yet more advantages.

They need a calmer and more assured display from Eoin Reddan, who made several errors in the semi. But Jonathan Sexton is another player who ranks among the very top bracket in his position.

The St Mary's man does the basics brilliantly and has also developed the merciless game-management that sets the best 10s apart. Leinster time their decisions to run at off balance opponents beautifully and they have been taking all the right risks.

Northampton – having given up on the unpredictable Shane Geraghty - use Stephen Myler to play a simple style which is easy to read but can be hard to counter.

Off poor ball, they invariably send James Downey or a big back-rower up the middle to simply set it and go again until a gap shows. It can be ponderous and generally, Saints take few risks, aiming to grind opponents down until space is created for the pace men. It is about work-rate, momentum, intimidation and building pressure.

(As an aside: Downey is different to the smaller centres favoured in most Irish provincial teams. But he is a thunderous tackler and that size gives his team something very different. He will hope to show enough to make Declan Kidney think it might be worth squeezing him on to a plane to New Zealand in September.)

But they come to life when a gap does appear, and the wide men support line breaks well - Chris Ashton and Ben Foden are big factors in why Northampton are here.

Ashton in particular is lightning fast and also has the work-rate and mentality of an ex-League man. He is a real danger. The other area to watch is the counter. As Ulster found, Saints will let Foden have a cut from deep. Leinster will need to kick and chase just as well as they did against Toulouse.

Leinster - attacking patterns a level above?

But overall, the Leinster attack is a level above: more cohesive, and with better depth, late arriving runners and line-breaking talent.

Gordon D’Arcy’s step is back, along with his form, and the team as a whole is alive to the offload. The patterns allow players to involve themselves multiple times in the same attack and over two or three phases opposition teams find it very hard to maintain their defensive line. The finishing has been excellent all year.

Aside from that, Isa Nacewa's countering game is at least the equal of anything Saints have to offer and he is at the fulcrum of what Leinster do in this area.

And there is Brian O’Driscoll. The embodiment of talismanic, he simply adapts his game to fill in wherever Leinster are lacking on a given day – be it finishing, at the ruck, in defence. A true master, he invariably shines on the biggest stages.

The thigh injury will hopefully stay quiet and he should be part of a winning team by 6pm on Saturday.

HEINEKEN CUP PREDICTION:

Leinster 25-8 Northampton

Leinster v Northampton Saints in the Heineken Cup final at the Millennium Stadium, Saturday, 5pm:

Leinster: I Nacewa; S Horgan, B O'Driscoll, G D'Arcy, L Fitzgerald; J Sexton, E Reddan; C Healy, R Strauss, M Ross, L Cullen [capt], N Hines, K McLaughlin, S O'Brien, J Heaslip.

Replacements: J Harris-Wright, H Van Der Merwe, S Wright, D Toner, S Jennings, I Boss, I Madigan, F McFadden.

Northampton Saints: B Foden; C Ashton, J Clarke, J Downey, P Diggin; S Myler, L Dickson; S Tonga'uiha, D Hartley [capt], B Mujati, C Lawes, C Day, C Clark, P Dowson, R Wilson.

Replacements: B Sharman, A Waller, T Mercey, M Sorenson, M Easter, S Commins, S Geraghty, J Ansbro.

Referee: Romain Poite (France).