Big-Match Preview: Gloucester v Munster

by Brendan Cole

So, the rumour mill got it right. As usual, a poster on the leading Munster supporters' website (a Tipperary man, we’re guessing) posted his prediction of the right team long before official sources; and despite a host of doubters and the somewhat unlikely look to the starting XV, he was right.

In the big calls, Shaun Payne, Anthony Foley and Peter Stringer are benched. Denis Leamy, Alan Quinlan, Tomás O’Leary and Denis Hurley start.

Hear Gloucester v Munster live on Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1 on Saturday. Highlights on RTÉ Two from 9pm

Listen to Rob Henderson and Donal Lenihan's views

Other issues that faced coach Declan Kidney during the week include Jerry Flannery v Frankie Sheahan, Tony Buckley v John Hayes, the second row, where Mick O’Driscoll is very much the man in form but only makes the bench, and the decision to bring in Ian Dowling.

Are they the right calls? Declan Kidney has been second guessed plenty of times before, but his track record of getting the mentality and, by and large, the team selections right for big games is excellent.

On the other hand, even this year the team selection has been demonstrably incorrect on at least one occasion in the Heineken Cup; namely, in Wasps v Munster on the opening day of round one.

That day, Anthony Horgan played on the wing despite a lack of match practice and form, made one or two errors, and cost Munster points in a match they eventually lost by a single point.

Ironically, with the Irish coaching job debate bubbling away underneath this fixture, two of the central criticisms of Kidney’s candidacy has been his unwillingness to drop the big names, and his reluctance to bring youth through outside the Magner’s League, which Munster generally do not take as seriously as other Irish teams.

Previously thought of as a flaw in his coaching make-up, could it be that, unlike his counterparts elsewhere, Kidney simply has a more discerning eye and demanding attitude to young talent?

Certainly, his attitude to young talent in the past would make you think that Hurley is perhaps more likely than players with similar profiles at other provinces to make the cut having been asked to step up a level.

Dowling, meanwhile, had been having a huge season up until his injury and if still in the same sort of form is well worth his place for all the rough edges he has to his game.

Does the team selection reveal anything about how Munster will play? Foley’s removal looks to be more about accommodating Quinlan than moving Leamy back to eight, and alongside O’Leary, more of a ‘fourth back rower’ type of nine, the overall impression is that Munster are concerned with countering the threat of the Gloucester back-row and nine.

The flipside is that without Stringer, Munster may well struggle to hit the tempo/multi-phase gear in which they tend to score a lot of their points as easily.

Kidney must also be aware that taking Foley out of the first XV and putting him on the bench, from where his personality and leadership cannot have anything like the impact it would when twinned with the weight of a starting place, has had catastrophic consequences in the past. Of all the potential ramifications, that has to be the most serious.

As an aside, if Kidney is to be the next Irish head coach, Foley should be seriously considered for the forwards job, perhaps with Mick Galwey taking a managerial role, and an outsider, ideally with some experience of the ELV’s, brought in to work with the backs and on defence.

Foley is, to my mind, the smartest rugby brain in the country when it comes to the fine detail of forward play and the knowledge of what it takes to actually win match after match. And Kidney’s ‘big picture’ ability to set the tone and free players mentally so they do what they do best under pressure also looks to be exactly what Ireland need.

All that is said with the proviso that it should only be tried if the personalities involved are enthusiastic.

Looking at Gloucester, the strengths are in the back row, where Buxton, Hazell and Narraway are all of international class, and at nine and ten, where Ryan Lamb and Rory Lawson have spark, inventiveness and range of passing.

Out wide, the attacking quality of Anthony Allen is another major consideration, while Lesley Vainikolo is undeniably a good runner with ball in hand.

Munster’s 12-13 defence has been excellent for the most part but Lifemi Mafi’s tendency to shoot up in search of the hit is exactly what Allen will look to target; he has the timing and skill to make Munster pay for ill discipline. 

But while they have quality, Gloucester do not have form coming into this match and anyone who saw their match against Worcester – where they were tackled behind the gain line and lacked the purpose and bravery of a team used to winning – would have to fancy Munster.

Kidney has chosen to change things while he is winning – as George Hook pointed out, this is one of Eddie O’Sullivan’s key failings – and whether or not it works could have huge consequences for the future of the game here at provincial and international level. Munster by 10 plus.

In the other games, London Irish should be able for Perpignan at home with Shane Geraghty back in harness. The Ospreys, new darlings of the media, are expected to waltz past Saracens but could find things tougher than expected at what is a new level for them, while Toulouse, who have been scoring for fun in France and lead the Top 14, are clear favourites to get past the workmanlike Cardiff Blues.

Heineken Cup: Quarter-Final Weekend Predictions:

London Irish 19-10 Perpignan
Munster 25-15 Gloucester
Saracens 12-17 Ospreys
Toulouse 35-11 Cardiff