Expert Analysis: Ireland v South Africa

by George Hook

By picking Jonathan Sexton ahead of Ronan O'Gara, Declan Kidney has demonstrated again the massive difference between himself and Eddie O'Sullivan as in similar circumstances it is quite certain that Eddie would have gone for the incumbent.

Instead, Kidney, under the huge pressure of playing the World Champions, is trying to find out whether or not Sexton is good enough to play international rugby. It is an incredibly courageous and imaginative decision and Irish rugby can only benefit from it.

That is because if Sexton plays well - and to be honest, I would consider 'playing well' to mean beating the South Africans - then he will start against Italy in the first game of the Six Nations, and if he does that he will start the following week in the biggest match of the Six Nations against France in Paris.

We could be looking at the biggest change at out-half for the Irish rugby for a decade and nobody should underestimate how important a decision this was.

What makes the fly-half decision an even bigger call is that we are playing South Africa, who are World Champions - although it is moot as to whether they are the best team in the world as in the world rankings as New Zealand are currently ahead of them in the number one position.

Weakness of SANZAR nations

The broader context of the world rankings is that the top three in world rugby have never been in a weaker position. The New Zealand side that played against England last week would not have lived with any of the All Blacks sides of the last 15 years, the Australians are struggling and have real selectorial issues in a lot of positions, and the South Africans are a shadow not only of the side that won the world cup but also the side that won the Lions Test series just a few months ago.

Ireland are currently ranked in fifth place - level on points with France, who play New Zealand on Saturday evening - but they have a great chance of going into the top three ahead of Australia depending on how the weekend of matches plays out.

In terms of the match itself, I think Ireland can win but there are some areas that will have to improve if they are to do so. The Irish scrum must survive and it is not guaranteed to do so as it was poor against Australia and even worse against Fiji, who have no scrum at all. The failure to dominate the Fijian scrum is a huge indicator of how average we are in that department. South Africa have moved John Smit to hooker, which strengthens their scrummaging.

Ireland also need to find some way of getting parity in the lineout against Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha.

Quality set-piece ball is key for Ireland

Those areas are crucial because as it stands, the Irish backline functions better off set-piece ball than it does from multiple phases. At the moment, we don't win enough ball at the breakdown - we concede too many turnovers - and we don't win it quickly enough.

But if we get good, usable ball from either the scrum or the lineout we are capable of scoring against South Africa, who use a very simplistic blitz defence - everybody rushing up at 100 miles-per-hour - to cut off the ball early. The key to Ireland beating that tactic is that both Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O'Gara are excellent passers of the ball and with either of those players at out-half I think Ireland can find holes across the South African defence.

Sexton also brings a youthful and aggressive attitude. He has shown he can pass and kick as well as O'Gara, so Ireland don't lose anything there, but he also adds a bit extra with his defending and his broken field running.

South Africa - a simple gameplan

The South Africa philosophy will be different. They have brought in Wynand Olivier at inside centre - and now have Jean De Villiers - on the bench but in many respects it makes very little difference who they pick in the backs because they kick the leather off the ball, defend like crazy and chase like lunatics regardless.

The final crucial factor may well be the referee. It is important to remember that Ireland might well have lost to Australia had Jonathan Kaplan not been in charge because he was very influential in terms of determining the final result.

Other matches have also seen controversial refereeing and the South Africans are deeply unhappy with the refereeing at the scrum and have sought a meeting with the IRB. Last week, we saw extraordinary refereeing of the breakdown by the Irish referee George Clancy in the Wales v Argentina game.

It is not entirely the fault of individual referees as the law has made it nigh on impossible for them. But it is disappointing that Nigel Owens may end up being one of the most influential men in the game on Saturday and his approach may well determine the result. If Owens does turn out to be influential, I have no doubt that he will turn out to have been a good referee for Ireland.

In the end, I think Ireland will win by the very narrowest of margins by gaining parity in the scrum and lineout and exploiting the South African blitz.