Expert Analysis: Ireland v South Africa

by Conor O'Shea

I think I said it while on air during the TV broadcast in the immediate aftermath of the romp against Fiji that Jonathan Sexton had delivered one of the most complete debuts seen in an Irish jersey and that he had thrown down the gauntlet to both Declan Kidney and Ronan O'Gara.

We all awaited the selection and tried to get into Kidney's head, but we should have learned by now that you can never second guess the man. I think we all thought he would stick by Ronan and I believe that if it had been the World Cup final it would have been to O'Gara he would have turned.

But it isn't a World Cup and he has been true to his word and is really trying to build a situation where we have two realistic alternatives in every position. A year ago he had no credible alternative to O'Gara, now he has the long term successor but he has also turned up the heat on the younger man by calling Fiji what they were: second tier opposition (bear in mind that Fiji would be far better at a Rugby World Cup).

Sexton: seeing him play an exciting prospect

So you have to say that this will be Sexton's real challenge but it is one I am quite sure he will approach with the same assurance and confidence that he has to every step up the ladder to date.

I can't wait to see him play.

What now for Ronan O'Gara? He would, I am sure, have wanted to have got the nod for this one to show what he can do in front of all his detractors - how there are still any in Ireland after what he has achieved I do not know. He has had wobbles before like any sportsman and has come through them. The difference this time is that the sands of time are rushing against him. He will be there for New Zealand in 2011 but the younger Sexton will be two years the better and if he sustains his rate of improvement God knows where he will be.

On the other hand, what I do know is that in any squad, who would you like to see coming in to the fray at 10 at a key time? In that respect O'Gara remains key to our cause and after Saturday he could still be our number one.

Another interesting thing in terms of our three quarter line selection came to mind when I sat down to watch the South Africa v Italy game from last weekend.

Though South Africa won comfortably thanks to the individual brilliance of Bryan Habana, Jacques Fourie, Fourie Du Preez and Ryan Kankowski, their midfield defence for the try Gonzalo Garcia scored for the Italians was truly awful.

New midfield combination could be crucial

The threat that Sexton brings allied to the ball playing ability of Paddy Wallace may have tipped the balance in Sexton's favour. We have a real opportunity to attack Morne Steyn's channel and Alan Gaffney for one will be plotting to exploit it and the use of Tommy Bowe and Keith Earls coming in off their wings, both as receivers and decoys, could cause carnage in a Springbok defence that has not looked as watertight as it has in the past.

It should be a great day for young Keith Earls but he will not be overawed, for his age he has already got experiences many of us would kill for. I am just looking forward to watching him take the Boks on with the fearless attitude of youth.

Having seen the Boks lose their first three matches on tour before overcoming Italy I still think that they have come to Europe targeting the Irish game as their final big one of a long season. Fitness permitting any side that can name the above players alongside the likes of John Smit, Bakkies Botha, Victor Matfield and Heinrich Brussow is pretty formidable. But they are creaking. Their scrum looks weak and although not an area of massive strength for Ireland we should gain parity in that area to launch our set plays through the backline.

Playing against a Springbok scrum will be a great learning experience for Cian Healy. However, don't be surprised if the Boks move John Smit back to hooker because they looked a more formidable unit with him back playing where many believe he belongs.

Breakdown battle a key area for Ireland

The other reason they may move Smit back is to target Ireland where all the Northern Hemisphere sides have struggled so far and that is at the breakdown. All the Six Nations sides bar France appear to be more concerned with their defensive line and have allowed themselves to be bullied in the ruck and even if you think of our 20-20 draw with Australia you will remember we were comprehensively outplayed there.

The Boks may decide to use bully tactics on us across the field. They rely on that physicality and on a huge kicking game - though their loss of full-back Francois Steyn to French rugby has impacted on this. But at 9 and 10 (Du Preez and Morne Steyn) they have two great kickers and two of the form players in world rugby.

Their lineout is second to none and in Brussow they have someone who can stand comparison to David Pocock, the man who led us on a merry dance at 'fetcher' for Australia.

We have seen some pretty drab test matches this autumn but this will be a real humdinger. The selection of Sexton has given us all an extra sense of expectation from the match and I can't wait for the first confrontation on the pitch.

In the end it won't be the piano lifters that will win this one, it will be the piano players like Sexton, O'Driscoll, Habana and Du Preez that will make the ultimate difference.

Either way, this match will bring the meaning of physicality to a new level.